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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

PSV Eindhoven

U S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 51%

67%

35%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

83%

52%

Both score Ø 58%

67%

48%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,93 xG 0,71

69% Possession 31%

25 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 4

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 2. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	24	19	3	2	+34	+23.3	60
2	PSV Eindhoven	24	16	4	4	+44	+29.6	52
3	Utrecht	24	13	7	4	+7	+2.0	46
4	Feyenoord	24	12	8	4	+21	+19.4	44
5	Twente	22	11	7	4	+17	+16.6	40
6	Go Ahead Eagles	24	11	5	8	+5	+8.4	38
7	AZ Alkmaar	22	11	4	7	+7	+10.1	37
8	For Sittard	25	9	5	11	-10	-3.3	32
9	Heerenveen	23	8	6	9	-5	+0.2	30
10	Groningen	24	7	7	10	-10	-9.2	28
11	NAC Breda	25	8	4	13	-16	-14.7	28
12	Heracles	25	6	9	10	-14	-14.5	27
13	Nijmegen	23	7	5	11	+2	+3.1	26
14	Zwolle	24	6	7	11	-10	-20.0	25
15	Sparta Rotterdam	25	5	9	11	-10	-0.7	24
16	Willem II	24	6	6	12	-12	-20.3	24
17	Waalwijk	24	4	5	15	-17	-13.9	17
18	Almere City	24	3	5	16	-33	-16.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	12	11	1	0	+23	+17.6	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	3	0	+30	+18.1	30
3	Go Ahead Eagles	13	8	3	2	+11	+12.3	27
4	Twente	10	7	3	0	+17	+13.9	24
5	Feyenoord	12	7	3	2	+11	+14.0	24
6	Heerenveen	12	6	5	1	+9	+6.0	23
7	NAC Breda	13	6	3	4	+1	-0.6	21
8	Groningen	12	5	5	2	+6	+1.6	20
9	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	-3	+5.5	20
10	Heracles	13	4	7	2	+4	+2.4	19
11	For Sittard	12	6	0	6	-4	+2.4	18
12	Zwolle	12	5	2	5	+1	-5.5	17
13	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+9	+8.2	16
14	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.5	16
15	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	-6.9	12
16	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-4	+2.6	11
18	Almere City	12	2	1	9	-20	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	12	8	2	2	+11	+5.7	26
2	Utrecht	12	7	5	0	+10	-3.5	26
3	PSV Eindhoven	12	7	1	4	+14	+11.4	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	3	3	+5	+2.6	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	12	4	4	4	+0	+2.7	16
7	For Sittard	13	3	5	5	-6	-5.7	14
8	Sparta Rotterdam	13	3	4	6	-6	-3.3	13
9	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-11	-13.4	12
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	2	6	-6	-3.9	11
11	Nijmegen	11	3	1	7	-7	-5.1	10
12	Zwolle	12	1	5	6	-11	-14.4	8
13	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
14	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-18	-16.9	8
15	Almere City	12	1	4	7	-13	-11.7	7
16	Heerenveen	11	2	1	8	-14	-5.8	7
17	NAC Breda	12	2	1	9	-17	-14.1	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.