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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Tondela

U S T U S

0–1

Full-time

Benfica

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 61%

33%

88%

Points per game

1,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

44%

38%

Both score Ø 29%

44%

13%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,0

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 4. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	0	1	+16	21
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+14	21
3	Famalicao	7	6	1	0	+9	19
4	Tondela	9	3	4	2	+1	13
5	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Boavista	8	2	6	0	+2	12
7	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+3	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Santa Clara	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Maritimo	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Sp Braga	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Setubal	8	1	5	2	-4	8
15	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	5	2	-4	8
16	Gil Vicente	9	1	5	3	-5	8
17	Portimonense	9	1	4	4	-4	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-9	5
19	Aves	9	1	0	8	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Gil Vicente	6	1	5	0	+1	8
6	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
9	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
10	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	+1	4
12	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	Aves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
16	Sp Lisbon	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Sp Lisbon	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Portimonense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Maritimo	5	1	3	1	-1	6
10	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Sp Braga	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
15	Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-6	0
19	Aves	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.