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Eredivisie

Referee: S Gozubuyuk

AZ Alkmaar

S S T U S

1–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

4,2

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 49%

45%

53%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

65%

84%

Both score Ø 75%

70%

79%

Average goals

3,4

4,3

Scored

1,8

2,6

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,39 xG 1,36

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 5. · Nijmegen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	17	2	1	+36	+19.3	53
2	Feyenoord	20	12	3	5	+22	+19.9	39
3	Nijmegen	19	10	5	4	+16	+6.8	35
4	Ajax	19	9	7	3	+11	+7.1	34
5	AZ Alkmaar	20	9	5	6	+3	+13.3	32
6	Sparta Rotterdam	20	10	2	8	-9	-3.7	32
7	Twente	21	7	10	4	+7	+20.7	31
8	Groningen	19	9	4	6	+6	+12.2	31
9	For Sittard	20	7	4	9	-4	-12.4	25
10	Heerenveen	18	6	5	7	+1	+11.9	23
11	Zwolle	20	6	5	9	-16	-15.8	23
12	Utrecht	18	6	4	8	+3	-1.6	22
13	Excelsior	20	6	4	10	-15	-13.2	22
14	Go Ahead Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	-12.1	21
15	Volendam	20	4	5	11	-14	-20.1	17
16	Telstar	20	3	7	10	-9	-8.7	16
17	NAC Breda	21	3	7	11	-11	-8.2	16
18	Heracles	20	4	2	14	-24	-15.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
2	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	+11.2	22
3	Nijmegen	9	6	2	1	+12	+7.2	20
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+10.3	20
5	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
6	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	+8	+3.6	16
7	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	4	1	+4	+7.8	16
8	Twente	10	4	4	2	+2	+11.8	16
9	Zwolle	9	5	1	3	-2	-1.1	16
10	Groningen	10	4	3	3	+6	+9.3	15
11	Volendam	10	4	3	3	+3	-1.8	15
12	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
13	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	2	4	-7	-1.8	14
14	Heerenveen	10	3	4	3	-1	+8.1	13
15	Excelsior	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.5	13
16	NAC Breda	11	3	3	5	-2	+2.2	12
17	Heracles	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.4	10
18	Telstar	11	1	4	6	-6	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Sparta Rotterdam	10	6	0	4	-2	-1.9	18
3	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
4	Groningen	9	5	1	3	+0	+2.9	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	1	5	-1	+5.5	16
6	Twente	11	3	6	2	+5	+8.9	15
7	Nijmegen	10	4	3	3	+4	-0.4	15
8	Ajax	9	3	5	1	+3	-3.3	14
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.6	9
11	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-13	-7.8	9
12	For Sittard	10	2	2	6	-6	-11.6	8
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	1	4	5	-6	-12.7	7
14	Zwolle	11	1	4	6	-14	-14.7	7
15	Utrecht	9	1	3	5	-5	-5.2	6
16	NAC Breda	10	0	4	6	-9	-10.3	4
17	Heracles	11	1	1	9	-19	-12.0	4
18	Volendam	10	0	2	8	-17	-18.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.