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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Ajax

U U S S S

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 15/13 matches

Win Ø 60%

73%

46%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

53%

69%

Both score Ø 35%

62%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

3,2

1,9

Conceded

0,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+3,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

23 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · AZ Alkmaar 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	11	3	1	+46	36
2	Feyenoord	16	11	3	2	+24	36
3	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	1	3	+16	34
4	Twente	16	8	4	4	+4	28
5	Utrecht	15	8	3	4	+11	27
6	Cambuur	16	9	0	7	-6	27
7	Vitesse	14	8	1	5	-2	25
8	Heerenveen	15	6	4	5	-1	22
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	3	7	-6	21
10	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	1	6	+5	19
11	Nijmegen	15	5	4	6	-4	19
12	Groningen	16	4	7	5	-4	19
13	Willem II	16	5	3	8	-14	18
14	Waalwijk	16	3	6	7	-8	15
15	Heracles	16	4	2	10	-7	14
16	For Sittard	16	3	3	10	-22	12
17	Sparta Rotterdam	16	2	5	9	-12	11
18	Zwolle	16	1	3	12	-20	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+13	21
3	Utrecht	8	6	2	0	+16	20
4	Ajax	8	6	1	1	+31	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Twente	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Heracles	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	0	4	+2	12
9	Cambuur	8	4	0	4	-2	12
10	Heerenveen	8	3	2	3	-1	11
11	Waalwijk	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Willem II	8	3	1	4	-7	10
13	Groningen	8	1	6	1	+1	9
14	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Vitesse	6	2	1	3	-5	7
16	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-11	7
17	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-5	6
18	Zwolle	8	1	2	5	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	8	6	0	2	+3	18
2	Ajax	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	Cambuur	8	5	0	3	-4	15
4	Feyenoord	8	4	2	2	+7	14
5	PSV Eindhoven	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+0	13
7	Heerenveen	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	-4	11
9	Groningen	8	3	1	4	-5	10
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-8	9
11	Willem II	8	2	2	4	-7	8
12	Utrecht	7	2	1	4	-5	7
13	Waalwijk	8	0	5	3	-3	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	For Sittard	9	1	2	6	-11	5
16	AZ Alkmaar	6	1	0	5	-5	3
17	Heracles	8	0	1	7	-8	1
18	Zwolle	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.