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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Belenenses

T S T U T

2–1

Full-time

Estoril

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,4

3,4

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Belenenses 16. · Estoril 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+12	15
3	Maritimo	6	5	0	1	+4	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Feirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-6	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	+0	6
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Sp Braga	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Aves	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Belenenses	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Chaves	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-3	6
8	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-4	3
11	Aves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.