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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Porto

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,8

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 70%

85%

54%

Points per game

2,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

77%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

20 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+19	38
2	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
3	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+28	34
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+8	25
5	Estoril	14	6	6	2	+6	24
6	Portimonense	14	7	2	5	+2	23
7	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+6	22
8	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-2	14
10	Arouca	13	3	4	6	-6	13
11	Tondela	13	4	0	9	-9	12
12	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-9	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	5	7	-9	11
14	Vizela	12	1	7	4	-10	10
15	Famalicao	14	2	4	8	-11	10
16	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-18	10
17	Moreirense	13	1	6	6	-9	9
18	Belenenses	13	1	5	7	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+7	12
6	Boavista	7	2	4	1	+2	10
7	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Maritimo	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+3	8
11	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-8	8
12	Estoril	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Moreirense	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Estoril	8	5	2	1	+6	17
4	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
5	Portimonense	7	5	1	1	+6	16
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
13	Arouca	7	0	3	4	-7	3
14	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
15	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Vizela	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Santa Clara	7	0	2	5	-10	2
18	Boavista	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.