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2. Bundesliga

Erzgebirge Aue

U S S T T

0–1

Full-time

Dresden

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

18 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

5 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Erzgebirge Aue 16. · Dresden 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	17	11	3	3	+17	36
2	Darmstadt	17	10	2	5	+19	32
3	Schalke 04	17	9	2	6	+11	29
4	Regensburg	17	8	4	5	+9	28
5	Paderborn	17	7	6	4	+11	27
6	Nurnberg	17	7	6	4	+4	27
7	Heidenheim	16	8	3	5	-1	27
8	Hamburg	16	6	8	2	+10	26
9	Werder Bremen	17	7	5	5	+4	26
10	Karlsruhe	16	5	6	5	+2	21
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	5	5	7	-1	20
12	Hannover	17	5	5	7	-10	20
13	Dresden	16	6	1	9	-3	19
14	Hansa Rostock	16	5	4	7	-7	19
15	Holstein Kiel	17	4	6	7	-10	18
16	Erzgebirge Aue	16	3	5	8	-12	14
17	Sandhausen	17	3	5	9	-17	14
18	Ingolstadt	17	1	4	12	-26	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	8	8	0	0	+19	24
2	Darmstadt	8	6	0	2	+15	18
3	Heidenheim	9	5	3	1	+5	18
4	Regensburg	9	5	2	2	+9	17
5	Nurnberg	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Schalke 04	9	5	1	3	+9	16
7	Dresden	8	5	0	3	+6	15
8	Hamburg	8	3	5	0	+7	14
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	+5	12
10	Karlsruhe	8	3	3	2	+4	12
11	Hannover	8	3	2	3	-2	11
12	Holstein Kiel	9	3	2	4	-6	11
13	Paderborn	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Erzgebirge Aue	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Hansa Rostock	8	2	2	4	-5	8
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	4	3	-1	7
17	Ingolstadt	8	0	3	5	-9	3
18	Sandhausen	8	0	3	5	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	8	5	3	0	+12	18
2	Darmstadt	9	4	2	3	+4	14
3	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	-1	14
4	Schalke 04	8	4	1	3	+2	13
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	1	4	+0	13
6	Hamburg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
7	St Pauli	9	3	3	3	-2	12
8	Regensburg	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Hansa Rostock	8	3	2	3	-2	11
10	Sandhausen	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Nurnberg	8	2	4	2	-3	10
12	Karlsruhe	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Heidenheim	7	3	0	4	-6	9
14	Hannover	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	Holstein Kiel	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	Erzgebirge Aue	8	1	3	4	-8	6
17	Dresden	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Ingolstadt	9	1	1	7	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.