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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Estoril

S T U U S

1–1

Full-time

Benfica

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 73%

56%

89%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

0,8

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

8 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 10

6 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 4. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+15	24
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+10	23
4	Estoril	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Sp Braga	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Portimonense	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+3	13
8	Boavista	10	2	5	3	-3	11
9	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	4	3	-3	10
10	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-1	9
11	Tondela	10	3	0	7	-6	9
12	Arouca	10	2	3	5	-6	9
13	Vizela	9	1	5	3	-7	8
14	Maritimo	9	1	4	4	-4	7
15	Moreirense	9	1	4	4	-7	7
16	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-4	6
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-12	6
18	Belenenses	9	0	5	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+14	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+5	9
4	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Vizela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Tondela	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Sp Braga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Estoril	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-6	5
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Gil Vicente	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Portimonense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Maritimo	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Estoril	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Porto	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Portimonense	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Guimaraes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Famalicao	5	1	1	3	-2	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-4	3
13	Belenenses	5	0	3	2	-4	3
14	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Arouca	5	0	2	3	-6	2
16	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-7	2
17	Boavista	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.