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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Belenenses

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

2,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 13%

19%

Points per game

0,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

27%

63%

Both score Ø 48%

33%

63%

Average goals

2,2

2,9

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 24

8 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 2

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Arouca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	15	2	0	+33	47
2	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+22	44
3	Benfica	17	13	1	3	+34	40
4	Sp Braga	17	9	5	3	+14	32
5	Estoril	17	6	7	4	+4	25
6	Portimonense	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	5	5	+5	23
8	Guimaraes	16	6	5	5	+5	23
9	Maritimo	17	5	5	7	-5	20
10	Boavista	17	3	8	6	-8	17
11	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	5	8	-9	17
12	Tondela	17	5	1	11	-12	16
13	Vizela	17	3	7	7	-12	16
14	Santa Clara	17	4	4	9	-17	16
15	Moreirense	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Arouca	16	3	5	8	-15	14
17	Famalicao	16	2	6	8	-11	12
18	Belenenses	15	1	5	9	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+18	24
3	Benfica	8	6	0	2	+15	18
4	Sp Braga	9	5	3	1	+10	18
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Boavista	9	3	5	1	+3	14
7	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	-6	14
8	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Tondela	9	4	0	5	-3	12
10	Vizela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-8	10
12	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	+0	8
15	Estoril	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Portimonense	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+19	22
3	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+9	19
4	Estoril	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Portimonense	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Famalicao	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	2	4	-6	8
11	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-9	8
12	Moreirense	9	1	3	5	-8	6
13	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-9	6
14	Arouca	8	0	4	4	-7	4
15	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-9	4
16	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-9	3
17	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-11	3
18	Santa Clara	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.