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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Santa Clara

U T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Santa Clara Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

25%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

43% Possession 57%

5 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 8

4 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Santa Clara 18. · Arouca 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+17	35
3	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+25	31
4	Sp Braga	12	6	4	2	+6	22
5	Estoril	12	5	6	1	+7	21
6	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+1	20
7	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+3	19
8	Gil Vicente	12	3	5	4	+0	14
9	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Tondela	12	4	0	8	-6	12
11	Boavista	13	2	6	5	-7	12
12	Maritimo	13	2	5	6	-5	11
13	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	5	6	-8	11
14	Famalicao	12	2	4	6	-4	10
15	Vizela	12	1	7	4	-10	10
16	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-8	9
17	Belenenses	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Santa Clara	12	1	4	7	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+7	12
4	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+7	11
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Boavista	7	2	4	1	+2	10
7	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
9	Estoril	6	1	4	1	+0	7
10	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
11	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Pacos Ferreira	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-9	5
17	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-9	5
18	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Estoril	6	4	2	0	+7	14
5	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	-1	11
7	Gil Vicente	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Guimaraes	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Famalicao	6	2	1	3	+1	7
10	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Tondela	6	1	0	5	-6	3
13	Arouca	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
15	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
16	Vizela	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Santa Clara	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.