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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Portimonense

T S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 36%

50%

21%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 39%

14%

64%

Average goals

1,9

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

12 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portimonense 6. · Arouca 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+19	38
3	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+28	34
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+7	25
5	Estoril	15	6	7	2	+6	25
6	Portimonense	14	7	2	5	+2	23
7	Guimaraes	15	6	4	5	+5	22
8	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-2	14
10	Vizela	13	2	7	4	-7	13
11	Arouca	14	3	4	7	-9	13
12	Santa Clara	15	3	4	8	-17	13
13	Tondela	13	4	0	9	-9	12
14	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-9	12
15	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	5	7	-9	11
16	Famalicao	15	2	5	8	-11	11
17	Moreirense	13	1	6	6	-9	9
18	Belenenses	13	1	5	7	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+7	12
6	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	-7	11
7	Boavista	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Arouca	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Maritimo	7	2	3	2	+2	9
10	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+3	8
12	Estoril	7	1	5	1	+0	8
13	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Moreirense	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Estoril	8	5	2	1	+6	17
4	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
5	Portimonense	7	5	1	1	+6	16
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Vizela	7	1	3	3	-7	6
11	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
12	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
13	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
14	Arouca	7	0	3	4	-7	3
15	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
16	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Santa Clara	7	0	2	5	-10	2
18	Boavista	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.