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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fábio Melo
Porto
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Maritimo
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Maritimo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
3,0
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 61%
89%
32%
Points per game
2,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
79%
47%
Both score Ø 63%
63%
63%
Average goals
3,4
2,7
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%
14 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
24 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 1. · Maritimo 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 19 17 2 0 +38 53
2 Sp Lisbon 19 15 2 2 +23 47
3 Benfica 19 14 2 3 +36 44
4 Sp Braga 20 11 5 4 +16 38
5 Gil Vicente 19 8 6 5 +7 30
6 Guimaraes 20 7 6 7 +5 27
7 Estoril 19 6 7 6 +1 25
8 Portimonense 20 7 4 9 -2 25
9 Maritimo 19 6 6 7 -4 24
10 Vizela 20 5 7 8 -12 22
11 Tondela 20 6 2 12 -12 20
12 Santa Clara 19 5 5 9 -15 20
13 Boavista 19 3 10 6 -8 19
14 Pacos Ferreira 19 4 7 8 -9 19
15 Arouca 19 4 5 10 -17 17
16 Famalicao 19 3 7 9 -12 16
17 Moreirense 20 3 7 10 -13 16
18 Belenenses 19 2 6 11 -22 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Maritimo
1–0 Evanilson
Otávio
18′
31′
🟨 André Vidigal
43′
🟨 Matheus Costa
Otávio 🟨
45′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Pepê Aquino
Otávio
48′
51′
🟨 Edgar Costa
53′
Edgar Costa 2–1
57′
🟨 Cláudio Winck
61′
🔁 Henrique
↦ S. Beltrame
61′
🔁 Pedro Pelágio
↦ André Vidigal
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ Fábio Vieira
63′
João Mário 🔁
↦ Pepê Aquino
63′
67′
🔁 I. Rossi
↦ Edgar Costa
68′
🔁 Bruno Xadas
↦ Diogo Mendes
Wendell 🟨
69′
Z. Sanusi 🔁
↦ Wendell
72′
Marko Grujić 🟨
79′
João Mário 🟨
79′
82′
🟨 Rafik Guitane
Toni Martínez 🔁
↦ Bruno Costa
88′
90′
🔁 Clésio
↦ Cláudio Winck
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
22 Wendell D
19 C. Mbemba D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
25 Otávio M
16 M. Grujić M
28 Bruno Costa D
20 Vitinha M
50 Fábio Vieira F
11 Pepê Aquino M
30 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
10 Francisco Conceição
23 João Mário
12 Z. Sanusi
29 Toni Martínez
3 Pepe
5 Iván Marcano
14 Cláudio Ramos
70 Gonçalo Borges
1 A. Marchesín

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Maritimo

4-4-2
48 Paulo Victor G
5 Zainadine Júnior D
2 Cláudio Winck D
94 Vítor Costa D
4 Matheus Costa D
10 S. Beltrame M
16 Diogo Mendes M
12 Edgar Costa F
9 A. Alipour F
8 R. Guitane M
7 André Vidigal M
Bench (9)
93 Henrique
60 Pedro Pelágio
15 I. Rossi
17 Bruno Xadas
24 Clésio
66 Léo Andrade
1 Miguel Silva
45 Fábio China
23 Rúben Macedo

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,14
U
7,67
B
20,56
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,57
U2,5
2,36
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Fábio Melo · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.