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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Lyon

S S U S S

4–3

Full-time

Brest

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 47%

39%

54%

Points per game

1,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

54%

36%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

39%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,26 xG 1,56

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 22

8 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 10

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 7

5 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 10. · Brest 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	18	9	1	+41	+23.8	63
2	Brest	28	15	8	5	+18	+10.3	53
3	Monaco	28	15	7	6	+15	+8.3	52
4	Lille	28	13	10	5	+17	+14.4	49
5	Nice	28	12	8	8	+6	+11.2	44
6	Lens	29	12	7	10	+6	+1.2	43
7	Reims	29	11	7	11	-3	+2.2	40
8	Marseille	28	10	9	9	+8	+16.5	39
9	Rennes	29	10	9	10	+5	+6.6	39
10	Lyon	28	11	5	12	-8	-4.6	38
11	Toulouse	29	9	9	11	-3	-6.9	36
12	Strasbourg	29	9	9	11	-7	-1.7	36
13	Montpellier	29	8	10	11	-5	+2.2	34
14	Nantes	29	9	4	16	-17	-13.6	31
15	Le Havre	29	6	10	13	-10	-10.8	28
16	Lorient	28	6	8	14	-17	-15.0	26
17	Metz	29	7	5	17	-19	-19.8	26
18	Clermont	29	4	10	15	-27	-24.3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	14	10	3	1	+20	+18.2	33
2	Paris SG	14	8	5	1	+19	+16.7	29
3	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
4	Brest	14	8	5	1	+13	+13.3	29
5	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	+7.9	25
6	Rennes	15	7	3	5	+9	+11.8	24
7	Monaco	14	7	3	4	+8	+8.7	24
8	Lens	14	7	3	4	+6	+4.9	24
9	Strasbourg	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.0	21
10	Reims	14	6	3	5	+0	+4.5	21
11	Montpellier	15	3	8	4	-1	+8.2	17
12	Le Havre	14	5	2	7	-1	+2.8	17
13	Lyon	14	4	4	6	-7	+0.7	16
14	Toulouse	14	3	6	5	+0	+4.6	15
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Metz	14	3	3	8	-6	-2.6	12
17	Nantes	15	3	3	9	-9	-5.5	12
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-15	-8.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+22	+7.1	34
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	14	7	3	4	+5	-3.0	24
4	Lyon	14	7	1	6	-1	-5.2	22
5	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	-3	-11.5	21
6	Lens	15	5	4	6	+0	-3.6	19
7	Nice	14	5	4	5	-1	+3.3	19
8	Reims	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
9	Nantes	14	6	1	7	-8	-8.1	19
10	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	-6.1	17
11	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
12	Rennes	14	3	6	5	-4	-5.2	15
13	Strasbourg	14	3	6	5	-7	-4.7	15
14	Metz	15	4	2	9	-13	-17.2	14
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-12	-9.8	13
16	Le Havre	15	1	8	6	-9	-13.7	11
17	Clermont	14	2	5	7	-12	-15.9	11
18	Marseille	14	2	4	8	-7	+1.5	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.