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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Vizela

T T T U T

4–0

Full-time

Estrela

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vizela Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 16%

13%

19%

Points per game

0,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,84 xG 0,72

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vizela 18. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	32	27	3	2	+63	+42.1	84
2	Benfica	32	24	4	4	+44	+38.1	76
3	Porto	32	20	6	6	+34	+29.8	66
4	Sp Braga	32	20	5	7	+21	+19.4	65
5	Guimaraes	32	18	6	8	+13	+6.7	60
6	Moreirense	32	14	7	11	-1	+0.1	49
7	Arouca	32	13	7	12	+11	+2.3	46
8	Famalicao	33	10	12	11	-3	-10.1	42
9	Farense	32	10	7	15	-1	-9.3	37
10	Rio Ave	32	6	17	9	-5	+0.1	35
11	Casa Pia	32	9	8	15	-12	-11.2	35
12	Estoril	32	9	6	17	-7	-12.7	33
13	Gil Vicente	32	8	9	15	-11	-10.4	33
14	Boavista	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.8	31
15	Estrela	32	6	12	14	-17	-7.9	30
16	Portimonense	32	7	7	18	-35	-25.2	28
17	Chaves	33	5	8	20	-38	-21.2	23
18	Vizela	32	4	10	18	-34	-12.8	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	16	0	0	+43	+28.9	48
2	Benfica	16	14	2	0	+36	+27.7	44
3	Guimaraes	16	11	2	3	+14	+11.3	35
4	Porto	16	10	4	2	+21	+22.5	34
5	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	+19.9	33
6	Estoril	16	8	1	7	+8	-0.2	25
7	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+5	+6.4	25
8	Moreirense	16	7	4	5	+1	+1.6	25
9	Arouca	16	7	3	6	+2	+0.7	24
10	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	+1	-3.7	24
11	Gil Vicente	16	5	7	4	+4	-5.4	22
12	Farense	16	6	4	6	+3	+0.9	22
13	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-9	-3.9	19
14	Estrela	16	5	3	8	-6	-1.7	18
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
16	Portimonense	16	3	5	8	-13	-10.1	14
17	Chaves	17	3	4	10	-16	-7.1	13
18	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-16	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	+13.2	36
2	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.4	32
3	Benfica	16	10	2	4	+8	+10.4	32
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+7	-0.4	32
5	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.6	25
6	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-2	-1.5	24
7	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
8	Casa Pia	16	6	3	7	-5	-6.8	21
9	Famalicao	17	4	6	7	-4	-6.4	18
10	Farense	16	4	3	9	-4	-10.2	15
11	Portimonense	16	4	2	10	-22	-15.1	14
12	Estrela	16	1	9	6	-11	-6.2	12
13	Boavista	16	3	3	10	-13	-13.9	12
14	Gil Vicente	16	3	2	11	-15	-5.0	11
15	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-18	-12.6	11
16	Rio Ave	16	0	10	6	-10	-6.4	10
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	16	1	5	10	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.