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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Napoli

S U T U U

0–2

Full-time

Bologna

U U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 43%

37%

49%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,57 xG 1,45

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 8. · Bologna 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	29	5	2	+67	+46.1	92
2	Milan	35	21	8	6	+25	+16.5	71
3	Juventus	35	18	12	5	+21	+24.4	66
4	Bologna	35	17	13	5	+22	+11.2	64
5	Atalanta	34	18	6	10	+25	+12.9	60
6	Roma	35	17	9	9	+20	+12.3	60
7	Lazio	35	17	5	13	+8	+4.6	56
8	Napoli	35	13	12	10	+9	+21.3	51
9	Fiorentina	34	14	8	12	+12	+3.3	50
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+0	+4.1	47
11	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
12	Genoa	35	10	13	12	-2	-6.5	43
13	Lecce	35	8	13	14	-18	-8.4	37
14	Verona	35	8	10	17	-13	-12.6	34
15	Cagliari	35	7	12	16	-23	-11.1	33
16	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-24	-17.6	32
17	Frosinone	36	7	11	18	-25	-14.5	32
18	Udinese	35	4	18	13	-19	-11.0	30
19	Sassuolo	35	7	8	20	-29	-21.3	29
20	Salernitana	35	2	9	24	-48	-40.3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Roma	18	11	4	3	+18	+12.2	37
4	Milan	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.2	36
5	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+13	+17.8	36
6	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+7	+8.6	30
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Frosinone	18	7	4	7	-3	-3.7	25
11	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
12	Genoa	17	6	6	5	+2	-1.3	24
13	Napoli	17	6	6	5	-1	+12.3	24
14	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
15	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
16	Verona	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.1	23
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	18	1	10	7	-8	-2.1	13
20	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-20	-15.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	15	2	1	+34	+18.5	47
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	18	8	6	4	+8	+6.6	30
4	Napoli	18	7	6	5	+10	+9.0	27
5	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
6	Atalanta	18	7	4	7	+2	-0.7	25
7	Bologna	17	5	9	3	+1	+2.1	24
8	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
11	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
12	Torino	17	4	5	8	-7	-4.2	17
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.1	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	17	2	3	12	-20	-11.6	9
18	Cagliari	17	1	5	11	-20	-16.0	8
19	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7
20	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.