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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Farense

S T T T T

0–5

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,5

Scored

0,5

4,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+3,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,29 xG 3,94

32% Possession 68%

4 Shots 28

1 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 11

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 5

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 15. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
3	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
4	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.3	6
5	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
8	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
9	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.9	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.4	1
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
17	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.2	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
10	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
13	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
15	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
16	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
17	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
18	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.9	3
2	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
10	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
13	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
14	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
17	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0
18	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.