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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Sp Lisbon

S S U U S

3–2

Full-time

Farense

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 56%

82%

30%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

73%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

52%

Average goals

3,9

2,7

Scored

2,9

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,11 xG 0,62

66% Possession 34%

17 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

12 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Farense 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	23	18	4	1	+41	+30.2	58
2	Sp Lisbon	22	18	2	2	+41	+28.2	56
3	Porto	23	15	4	4	+21	+17.5	49
4	Sp Braga	24	15	4	5	+20	+16.9	49
5	Guimaraes	24	13	5	6	+12	+5.4	44
6	Moreirense	24	11	6	7	+1	+0.4	39
7	Arouca	24	10	4	10	+10	+0.9	34
8	Gil Vicente	24	7	6	11	-3	-8.7	27
9	Casa Pia	24	7	6	11	-13	-7.6	27
10	Farense	23	7	5	11	-2	-8.1	26
11	Famalicao	22	6	8	8	-5	-6.8	26
12	Boavista	23	6	6	11	-14	-10.4	24
13	Rio Ave	24	4	11	9	-9	+1.5	23
14	Portimonense	24	6	5	13	-25	-16.2	23
15	Estoril	24	6	4	14	-6	-9.2	22
16	Estrela	24	5	7	12	-15	-10.4	22
17	Vizela	24	3	9	12	-24	-9.2	18
18	Chaves	24	4	6	14	-30	-14.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+30	+18.7	33
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+28	+20.8	32
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+14	+15.0	26
4	Guimaraes	12	8	1	3	+11	+9.1	25
5	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+14	+18.9	24
6	Gil Vicente	12	5	5	2	+9	-5.0	20
7	Moreirense	12	5	3	4	+0	+0.6	18
8	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+3	+0.2	17
9	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	+5.5	17
10	Estoril	12	5	1	6	+6	+1.1	16
11	Farense	12	4	3	5	+2	+0.2	15
12	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.7	15
13	Estrela	12	4	2	6	-4	-4.4	14
14	Portimonense	12	3	4	5	-6	-4.5	13
15	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.9	13
16	Chaves	12	3	3	6	-10	-3.7	12
17	Casa Pia	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.9	10
18	Vizela	12	1	4	7	-12	-1.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+13	+9.5	26
2	Sp Braga	12	8	1	3	+6	-2.0	25
3	Sp Lisbon	11	7	2	2	+11	+9.5	23
4	Porto	12	7	2	3	+7	+2.6	23
5	Moreirense	12	6	3	3	+1	-0.2	21
6	Guimaraes	12	5	4	3	+1	-3.7	19
7	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.8	17
8	Casa Pia	12	5	2	5	-6	-5.8	17
9	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-4	-6.5	11
10	Farense	11	3	2	6	-4	-8.4	11
11	Famalicao	12	2	5	5	-4	-5.1	11
12	Vizela	12	2	5	5	-12	-7.8	11
13	Portimonense	12	3	1	8	-19	-11.6	10
14	Estrela	12	1	5	6	-11	-6.0	8
15	Gil Vicente	12	2	1	9	-12	-3.7	7
16	Rio Ave	12	0	6	6	-10	-3.9	6
17	Estoril	12	1	3	8	-12	-10.3	6
18	Chaves	12	1	3	8	-20	-10.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.