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Serie B
Referee: G Scatena
Modena
T U S U T
2–1
Full-time
Bari
S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Modena Bari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
This season — Serie B · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%
16 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
20 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Modena 16. · Bari 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juve Stabia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
2 Salernitana 1 1 0 0 +1 3
3 Sudtirol 1 1 0 0 +1 3
4 Cesena 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Brescia 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Cosenza 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Frosinone 1 0 1 0 +0 1
8 Sampdoria 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Pisa 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Spezia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Reggiana 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Mantova 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Catanzaro 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Sassuolo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Cittadella 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Modena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Carrarese 1 0 0 1 -1 0
18 Palermo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Cremonese 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Bari 1 0 0 1 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Modena Bari
Thomas Battistella 🟨
8′
14′
🟨 Mattia Maita
Antonio Palumbo 🟨
16′
17′
A. Novakovich 0–1
Pedro Mendes ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
30′
39′
🟨 Giacomo Manzari
Half-time 0–1
Ettore Gliozzi ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
46′
L. Magnino 🔁
↦ T. Battistella
46′
46′
🔁 G. Ricci
↦ M. Dorval
1–1 A. Palumbo
48′
58′
🔁 C. Favasuli
↦ G. Manzari
58′
🔁 K. Lasagna
↦ A. Novakovich
61′
🟨 Ahmad Benali
2–1 Pedro Mendes
A. Palumbo
62′
70′
🔁 K. Lulić
↦ M. Maita
Ettore Gliozzi 🟨
72′
G. Defrel 🔁
↦ A. Palumbo
74′
R. Idrissi 🔁
↦ M. Cotali
74′
A. Di Pardo 🔁
↦ A. Pergreffi
74′
79′
🔁 L. Sgarbi
↦ A. Oliveri
80′
🟨 Costantino Favasuli
Giovanni Zaro 🟨
84′
Eric Botteghin 🔁
↦ E. Gliozzi
85′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Modena

4-3-2-1
26 R. Gagno G
23 M. Caldara D
19 G. Zaro D
4 A. Pergreffi D
29 M. Cotali D
8 S. Santoro M
16 F. Gerli M
5 T. Battistella M
10 A. Palumbo M
9 E. Gliozzi M
11 Pedro Mendes F
Bench (12)
6 L. Magnino
92 G. Defrel
27 R. Idrissi
18 A. Di Pardo
31 Eric Botteghin
33 C. Cauz
2 G. Beyuku
21 K. Bozhanaj
7 E. Duca
1 J. Sassi
90 F. Abiuso
42 L. Mondele

Coach: P. Bisoli

Bari

3-4-2-1
1 B. Radunović G
25 R. Pucino D
23 F. Vicari D
55 N. Obaretin D
7 A. Oliveri M
4 M. Maita M
8 Ahmad Benali M
93 M. Dorval M
18 G. Manzari F
20 G. Sibilli F
9 A. Novakovich F
Bench (12)
31 G. Ricci
27 C. Favasuli
15 K. Lasagna
26 K. Lulić
11 L. Sgarbi
80 F. Faggi
14 G. Morachioli
16 A. Astrologo
10 N. Bellomo
3 V. Mantovani
22 M. Pissardo
5 E. Matino

Coach: M. Longo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,25
U
3,02
B
3,44
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,50
U2,5
1,51
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.