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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Sp Lisbon

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Farense

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

78%

22%

Points per game

2,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

44%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,6

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

73% Possession 27%

18 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 24

4 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Farense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+16	23
2	Benfica	9	7	0	2	+10	21
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Sp Braga	9	6	0	3	+5	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	+0	16
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+1	13
8	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-2	11
9	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-2	11
10	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-5	11
11	Nacional	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Moreirense	10	2	4	4	-3	10
13	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-2	9
15	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-9	9
16	Farense	9	2	2	5	-3	8
17	Boavista	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	Portimonense	10	2	2	6	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Tondela	6	2	2	2	-3	8
8	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Farense	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
14	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-4	6
15	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Guimaraes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Santa Clara	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-2	5
10	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Boavista	5	0	4	1	-2	4
13	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-4	3
14	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.