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Primeira Liga
Referee: C Pereira
Sp Braga
T U U S S
3–0
Full-time
Tondela
S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,98 xG 0,78
68% Possession 32%
8 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 3
3 Offside 6
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Feb -22 Tondela – Sp Braga 0–1 20. Sep -21 Sp Braga – Tondela 3–1 21. Feb -21 Sp Braga – Tondela 4–2 3. Oct -20 Tondela – Sp Braga 0–4 20. Jul -20 Tondela – Sp Braga 1–0

Match report

Sp Braga Tondela
1–0 Vitor Carvalho ⚽
L. Lelo
24′
2–0 P. Victor ⚽
L. Lelo
37′
Half-time 2–0
53′
ℹ️ Cicero
VAR: Penalty cancelled
G. Lagerbielke 🔁
↦ P. Oliveira
55′
R. Horta 🔁
↦ P. Victor
55′
63′
🔁 X. Huarte
↦ Yarlen
63′
🔁 A. Rodrigues
↦ H. Tavares
V. Gomez 🔁
↦ Gorby
69′
S. Vidigal 🔁
↦ I. Gharbi
69′
Roger Fernandes 🟨
70′
72′
🔁 Y. Rodriguez
↦ Cicero
72′
🔁 J. Rodriguez
↦ Miro
76′
🟨 João Afonso
82′
🟨 Brayan Medina
3–0 R. Horta ⚽
83′
M. Dorgeles 🔁
↦ Roger
84′
84′
🔁 M. Ouattara
↦ Pedro Maranhao
92′
🟨 Yefrei Rodriguez
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-4-2
1 L. Hornicek G
6 Vitor Carvalho D
15 P. Oliveira D
26 B. Arrey-Mbi D
5 L. Lelo D
7 Roger M
29 Gorby M
50 D. Rodrigues M
11 I. Gharbi M
18 P. Victor F
9 A. El Ouazzani F
Bench (9)
36 A. Bellaarouch
2 V. Gomez
4 S. Niakate
10 R. Zalazar
14 G. Lagerbielke
20 M. Dorgeles
21 R. Horta
39 F. Navarro
95 S. Vidigal

Coach: Carlos Vicens

Tondela

4-2-3-1
31 Bernardo G
48 T. Manso D
5 J. Afonso D
20 B. Medina D
60 E. Maviram D
8 H. Tavares M
97 Cicero M
67 Yarlen M
10 J. Hodge M
7 Pedro Maranhao M
9 Miro F
Bench (9)
1 G. Souza
2 Bebeto
4 C. Marques
6 A. Ceitil
11 Y. Rodriguez
14 X. Huarte
19 A. Rodrigues
32 J. Rodriguez
70 M. Ouattara

Coach: Cristiano Bacci

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,36
🔒
U
4,63
🔒
B
7,88
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,72
🔒
U2,5
2,02
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Pereira · 11 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.