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Super League

Referee: Mirel Turkes

Lugano

U T T T T

3–1

Full-time

Basel

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,7

Scored

0,3

2,7

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

3,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,37 xG 1,97

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 12. · Basel 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	3	3	0	0	+9	+4.2	9
2	Thun	3	3	0	0	+3	-1.1	9
3	Sion	3	2	1	0	+5	-0.1	7
4	Basel	3	2	0	1	+3	+5.2	6
5	Young Boys	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
6	Luzern	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
7	Lausanne	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.5	3
8	Zurich	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
9	Winterthur	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
10	Grasshoppers	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
11	Servette	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.2	0
12	Lugano	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.9	6
2	Basel	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.3	6
3	Young Boys	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.0	4
4	Sion	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.5	3
5	Lausanne	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.9	3
6	Thun	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.7	3
7	Winterthur	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
8	Luzern	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
9	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
10	Zurich	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
11	Lugano	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Servette	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
2	Sion	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
3	St. Gallen	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.3	3
4	Luzern	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
5	Zurich	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
6	Young Boys	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.6	1
7	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
8	Basel	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
9	Lausanne	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
10	Servette	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
11	Lugano	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.5	0
12	Winterthur	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.