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Primeira Liga

Referee: S Guelho

Tondela

T T T T T

2–2

Full-time

Estoril

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

0,3

2,2

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,0

1,5

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,79 xG 2,11

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

9 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Estoril 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.6	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.2	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+10	+6.4	9
4	Moreirense	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
5	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.2	7
6	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
7	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.6	6
8	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-4	-3.4	5
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
10	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
11	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
13	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.1	2
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.5	1
16	AVS	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.5	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
3	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
4	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.0	4
5	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
6	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
14	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
15	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.