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Serie B

Referee: Mattia Maresca

Cesena

T S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Avellino

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cesena Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Serie B · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

55%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

64%

45%

Both score Ø 69%

82%

55%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,25 xG 0,47

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cesena 4. · Avellino 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	12	7	4	1	+13	+1.2	25
2	Monza	11	7	2	2	+8	+1.2	23
3	Frosinone	12	6	4	2	+11	+1.8	22
4	Cesena	11	6	2	3	+3	+0.8	20
5	Venezia	12	5	4	3	+8	+0.9	19
6	Palermo	12	5	4	3	+6	-1.7	19
7	Juve Stabia	11	4	5	2	+0	+0.6	17
8	Reggiana	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.4	16
9	Avellino	11	4	4	3	-3	+0.2	16
10	Carrarese	12	3	6	3	+2	+1.0	15
11	Catanzaro	12	3	6	3	+1	-1.3	15
12	Padova	12	3	5	4	-2	-1.3	14
13	Empoli	12	3	5	4	-4	+0.6	14
14	Virtus Entella	12	3	5	4	-5	-2.7	14
15	Bari	11	3	4	4	-5	-0.7	13
16	Sudtirol	12	2	6	4	-3	-1.8	12
17	Mantova	12	3	2	7	-9	+1.3	11
18	Spezia	12	1	5	6	-5	+0.7	8
19	Pescara	11	1	5	5	-8	-0.2	8
20	Sampdoria	12	1	4	7	-8	-0.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	6	5	1	0	+10	–	16
2	Venezia	6	5	0	1	+10	+0.9	15
3	Monza	6	5	0	1	+5	–	15
4	Palermo	7	3	3	1	+5	-1.2	12
5	Reggiana	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.4	12
6	Virtus Entella	6	3	3	0	+4	–	12
7	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
8	Juve Stabia	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.6	11
9	Empoli	7	2	5	0	+3	+0.6	11
10	Bari	5	3	2	0	+3	–	11
11	Avellino	5	3	1	1	+0	–	10
12	Catanzaro	6	2	3	1	+1	–	9
13	Carrarese	6	2	2	2	+1	–	8
14	Pescara	6	1	4	1	+2	-0.2	7
15	Sudtirol	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.8	7
16	Mantova	6	2	1	3	-6	+1.3	7
17	Padova	5	1	3	1	+0	–	6
18	Cesena	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
19	Sampdoria	6	1	2	3	-1	–	5
20	Spezia	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	7	5	0	2	+3	–	15
2	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+4	–	11
3	Modena	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.2	9
4	Monza	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.2	8
5	Padova	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.3	8
6	Carrarese	6	1	4	1	+1	+1.0	7
7	Palermo	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.6	7
8	Catanzaro	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.3	6
9	Avellino	6	1	3	2	-3	+0.2	6
10	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-4	–	6
11	Spezia	5	1	2	2	+1	–	5
12	Sudtirol	6	0	5	1	-3	–	5
13	Venezia	6	0	4	2	-2	–	4
14	Mantova	6	1	1	4	-3	–	4
15	Reggiana	6	1	1	4	-5	–	4
16	Empoli	5	1	0	4	-7	–	3
17	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.2	2
18	Bari	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.7	2
19	Virtus Entella	6	0	2	4	-9	-2.7	2
20	Pescara	5	0	1	4	-10	–	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.