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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Genoa

T U T T S

2–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 5%

10%

Points per game

0,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,6

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,58 xG 1,56

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

20 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 18. · Fiorentina 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	11	6	4	1	+8	+5.1	22
2	Napoli	10	7	1	2	+8	+3.8	22
3	Inter	10	7	0	3	+12	+10.8	21
4	Roma	10	7	0	3	+5	+1.5	21
5	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+4	+6.0	19
6	Bologna	10	5	3	2	+8	+2.6	18
7	Como	11	4	6	1	+6	+2.8	18
8	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+2	-3.5	16
9	Lazio	10	4	3	3	+6	-3.3	15
10	Udinese	10	4	3	3	-3	-1.8	15
11	Cremonese	11	3	5	3	-1	-6.3	14
12	Torino	11	3	5	3	-6	-4.3	14
13	Atalanta	11	2	7	2	+2	+4.6	13
14	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-5	-6.7	10
15	Lecce	11	2	4	5	-6	-4.7	10
16	Pisa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.1	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.7	8
18	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-8	+2.0	6
19	Verona	11	0	6	5	-10	+0.4	6
20	Fiorentina	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+5	-0.5	13
2	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
3	Inter	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.2	12
4	Como	6	3	3	0	+6	+2.4	12
5	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
6	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+6	+1.2	10
7	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.9	10
8	Roma	5	3	0	2	+2	+1.6	9
9	Udinese	5	2	2	1	-1	+1.6	8
10	Torino	5	2	2	1	-1	-2.4	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Cremonese	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.3	6
13	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.8	6
14	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
15	Parma	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.6	6
16	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.0	4
17	Verona	5	0	3	2	-2	+2.3	3
18	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
19	Genoa	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
20	Fiorentina	5	0	1	4	-5	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.1	12
2	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.7	10
3	Milan	5	2	3	0	+5	+2.4	9
4	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+3	+4.4	9
5	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
6	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.3	8
7	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
8	Juventus	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.0	7
9	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.4	7
10	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.8	7
11	Atalanta	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
12	Como	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.4	6
13	Cagliari	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Lazio	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.4	5
16	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-2	-0.3	4
17	Fiorentina	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.2	3
18	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.8	3
19	Verona	6	0	3	3	-8	-1.9	3
20	Parma	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.