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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S T

1–5

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,8

Scored

1,8

3,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 73%

64%

82%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

73%

82%

Both score Ø 73%

73%

Average goals

3,4

4,6

Scored

2,2

3,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

0,28 xG 2,39

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · PSV Eindhoven 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+20	+17.4	28
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.3	28
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	3	1	+11	+12.3	24
4	Ajax	12	5	5	2	+5	+1.9	20
5	Groningen	12	6	1	5	+0	+3.3	19
6	Nijmegen	12	5	3	4	+9	+5.4	18
7	Utrecht	11	6	0	5	+6	-2.0	18
8	Twente	12	4	4	4	+2	+9.9	16
9	For Sittard	12	5	1	6	-2	-6.2	16
10	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	1	6	-10	-5.5	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	4	4	+0	-2.7	13
12	Heerenveen	11	3	4	4	-2	+8.2	13
13	Volendam	12	3	4	5	-4	-8.8	13
14	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.6	12
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-13	-10.3	12
16	Excelsior	12	3	1	8	-12	-7.6	10
17	Telstar	12	2	3	7	-7	-6.8	9
18	Heracles	12	3	0	9	-16	-12.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+10	+3.7	15
2	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+7	+10.5	15
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.7	13
4	Nijmegen	6	4	1	1	+9	+5.3	13
5	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+5	+4.3	13
6	For Sittard	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.3	13
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.5	11
8	Volendam	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.8	11
9	Groningen	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.0	10
10	NAC Breda	6	3	1	2	+1	+2.4	10
11	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
13	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	+6.9	8
14	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-6	-2.8	7
15	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-7	-3.8	7
16	Heracles	5	2	0	3	-2	-3.5	6
17	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	-3.5	6
18	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+10	+3.6	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+13	+6.9	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+4	+5.9	13
4	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.7	9
5	Groningen	6	3	0	3	-4	+0.3	9
6	Twente	6	2	2	2	+3	+2.9	8
7	Ajax	6	1	4	1	+0	-2.5	7
8	Nijmegen	6	1	2	3	+0	+0.1	5
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-2	-4.4	5
10	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-7	-7.5	5
11	Heerenveen	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
12	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-4	-6.8	4
13	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
14	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
15	For Sittard	6	1	0	5	-6	-7.5	3
16	Heracles	7	1	0	6	-14	-8.6	3
17	NAC Breda	6	0	2	4	-7	-10.0	2
18	Volendam	6	0	2	4	-8	-9.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.