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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fábio Melo
Nacional
S U T U U
2–1
Full-time
Gil Vicente
U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Gil Vicente
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 1
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 11
1 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 20
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nacional 12. · Gil Vicente 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 7 6 1 0 +15 19
2 Benfica 6 5 0 1 +9 15
3 Sp Braga 6 4 0 2 +4 12
4 Porto 6 3 1 2 +6 10
5 Santa Clara 7 3 1 3 +0 10
6 Rio Ave 7 2 4 1 +0 10
7 Guimaraes 7 3 1 3 -3 10
8 Famalicao 7 2 3 2 -3 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 6 2 2 2 -1 8
10 Moreirense 6 2 2 2 -1 8
11 Tondela 7 2 2 3 -6 8
12 Nacional 6 1 4 1 +0 7
13 Belenenses 7 1 4 2 -2 7
14 Maritimo 7 2 1 4 -3 7
15 Boavista 6 1 3 2 -3 6
16 Gil Vicente 6 1 2 3 -3 5
17 Portimonense 6 1 1 4 -4 4
18 Farense 6 0 2 4 -5 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nacional Gil Vicente
Vincent Thill 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
B. Róchez 🔁
↦ L. Azouni
46′
João Victor 🔁
↦ V. Thill
46′
49′
🟨 Antoine Leautey
50′
Rodrigão 0–1
Talocha
1–1 João Camacho
Rúben Freitas
57′
64′
🔁 Y. Baraye
↦ A. Léautey
68′
🟨 Claude Gonçalves
70′
🔁 Ygor Nogueira
↦ Claude Gonçalves
70′
🔁 Miullen
↦ Renan
V. Danilović 🔁
↦ Rúben Micael
78′
82′
🟨 Ygor Nogueira
K. Gorré 🔁
↦ João Camacho
87′
90′
🟨 Lucas Mineiro
92′
🔁 A. Isaiah
↦ Lourency
2–1 B. Róchez
A. Alhassan
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Nacional

4-3-3
13 Daniel G
27 Rúben Freitas D
3 Lucas Kal D
4 Pedrão D
14 Rúben Micael M
5 L. Azouni M
45 V. Thill F
6 A. Alhassan M
94 B. Riascos F
7 João Camacho F
23 Witi D
Bench (9)
35 B. Róchez
77 João Victor
8 V. Danilović
11 K. Gorré
12 G. Bobál
44 Júlio César
80 M. Rouai
55 Nuno Borges
1 R. Piscitelli

Coach: Carlos Simões

Gil Vicente

3-4-3
1 Denis G
26 Rúben Fernandes D
31 Talocha M
5 Rodrigão D
2 Joel Pereira M
6 João Afonso D
8 Claude Gonçalves M
11 A. Léautey F
25 Lucas Mineiro M
7 Lourency F
19 Renan F
Bench (9)
22 Y. Baraye
44 Ygor Nogueira
9 Miullen
99 A. Isaiah
3 S. Aw
17 Boubacar Hanne
21 Vitor Carvalho
20 K. Fujimoto
63 Daniel Fuzato

Coach: Rui Almeida

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,60
U
2,95
B
2,91
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,57
U2,5
1,48
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Fábio Melo · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.