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La Liga

Referee: José Munuera

Ath Madrid

U S U T U

3–1

Full-time

Leganes

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Leganes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

44%

11%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

33%

11%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,0

1,6

Scored

1,4

0,6

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

4,51 xG 0,24

63% Possession 37%

24 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Leganes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.2	24
2	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+14	+9.1	24
3	Ath Madrid	9	4	5	0	+8	+5.1	17
4	Ath Bilbao	10	5	2	3	+6	+1.8	17
5	Mallorca	10	5	2	3	+2	+3.8	17
6	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+0	+3.2	17
7	Betis	10	4	3	3	+1	+5.9	15
8	Osasuna	10	4	3	3	-2	-2.2	15
9	Vallecano	10	3	4	3	+1	-2.6	13
10	Celta	10	4	1	5	+0	+2.2	13
11	Sociedad	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.1	12
12	Sevilla	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.3	12
13	Girona	10	3	3	4	-2	+2.2	12
14	Alaves	10	3	1	6	-5	-3.3	10
15	Espanol	10	3	1	6	-7	-10.5	10
16	Getafe	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-5.3	8
18	Valladolid	10	2	2	6	-13	-5.9	8
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.6	6
20	Las Palmas	9	0	3	6	-8	-9.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.5	15
2	Osasuna	6	4	1	1	+4	+2.1	13
3	Ath Bilbao	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.0	11
4	Celta	6	3	1	2	+3	+2.4	10
5	Betis	5	3	1	1	+3	+5.9	10
6	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
7	Espanol	5	3	0	2	+1	-1.6	9
8	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.9	9
9	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+6	+6.0	8
10	Mallorca	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.2	8
11	Getafe	5	1	4	0	+2	+3.9	7
12	Girona	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.2	7
13	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.6	7
14	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.0	7
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
16	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
17	Valladolid	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.1	5
18	Sociedad	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.1	4
19	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.6	4
20	Las Palmas	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+10	+5.8	15
2	Villarreal	5	3	1	1	+1	+2.6	10
3	Real Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.6	9
4	Ath Madrid	5	2	3	0	+2	-0.9	9
5	Mallorca	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.6	9
6	Sociedad	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.0	8
7	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.4	8
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
9	Betis	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.0	5
10	Girona	5	1	2	2	-3	+1.0	5
11	Leganes	5	0	4	1	-2	-4.7	4
12	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.5	3
13	Celta	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
14	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.3	3
15	Valladolid	5	1	0	4	-12	-5.8	3
16	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.3	2
17	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
18	Espanol	5	0	1	4	-8	-8.9	1
19	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	-7.0	1
20	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.