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Europa League
Referee: Tiago Martins
HJK Helsinki
U T T U T
1–2
Full-time
Roma
T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

HJK Helsinki Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,2
Scored
0,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,2
This season — Europa League · 8/4 matches
Win Ø 32%
38%
25%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
13%
75%
Both score Ø 50%
25%
75%
Average goals
1,9
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%
6 Shots 18
3 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 6
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Sep -22 Roma – HJK Helsinki 3–0

Match report

HJK Helsinki Roma
22′
🟨 Gianluca Mancini
29′
ℹ️ Bryan Cristante
VAR: Goal cancelled
Aapo Halme 🟨
34′
41′
⚽ T. Abraham 0–1
L. Pellegrini
Half-time 0–1
M. Abubakari 🔁
↦ A. Olusanya
46′
1–1 P. Hetemaj ⚽
M. Abubakari
54′
62′
⚽ A. Hoskonen 2–1
own goal
N. Boujellab 🔁
↦ P. Hetemaj
69′
77′
🔁 G. Faticanti
↦ C. Volpato
78′
🔁 E. Shomurodov
↦ L. Pellegrini
78′
🔁 E. Bove
↦ M. Camara
David Browne ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
80′
81′
🟨 Rui Patrício
Malik Abubakari 🟨
82′
84′
🔁 M. Kumbulla
↦ B. Cristante
89′
🔁 L. Spinazzola
↦ S. El Shaarawy
94′
🟨 Leonardo Spinazzola
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

3-4-2-1
1 C. Hazard G
5 A. Hoskonen D
6 A. Halme D
14 M. Peltola D
23 P. Soiri M
8 L. Lingman M
21 S. Väänänen M
24 D. Browne M
7 S. Hostikka F
56 P. Hetemaj F
29 A. Olusanya F
Bench (12)
77 M. Abubakari
10 N. Boujellab
4 J. Toivio
44 F. Serrarens
18 B. Radulović
37 A. Tanaka
19 C. Terho
58 J. Yli-Kokko
3 J. Saksela
9 Riku Riski
12 J. Tånnander
17 M. Martić

Coach: T. Koskela

Roma

3-4-2-1
1 Rui Patrício G
23 G. Mancini D
6 C. Smalling D
17 M. Viña D
59 N. Zalewski M
4 B. Cristante M
20 M. Camara M
92 S. El Shaarawy M
62 C. Volpato F
7 L. Pellegrini F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (11)
73 G. Faticanti
14 E. Shomurodov
52 E. Bove
24 M. Kumbulla
37 L. Spinazzola
72 L. Cherubini
2 R. Karsdorp
65 F. Tripi
11 A. Belotti
99 M. Svilar
63 P. Boer

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.