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Europa League
Referee: J Kehlet
Nantes
T T T S U
2–1
Full-time
Qarabag
T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,7
This season — Europa League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 25%
25%
25%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
0,5
1,8
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
17 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 9
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Sep -22 Qarabag – Nantes 3–0

Match report

Nantes Qarabag
Pedro Chirivella 🟨
-5′
1–0 L. Blas ⚽
Chirivella
16′
Abdoul Kader Bamba 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–1
56′
⚽ F. Ozobić 1–1
Andrei Girotto 🟨
60′
M. Sissoko 🔁
↦ S. Corchia
67′
M. Simon 🔁
↦ E. Guessand
67′
D. Appiah 🔁
↦ K. Bamba
67′
69′
🔁 M. Janković
↦ R. Almeyda
69′
🔁 R. Şeydayev
↦ F. Ozobić
I. Ganago 🔁
↦ S. Moutoussamy
78′
79′
🔁 Júlio Romão
↦ Q. Qarayev
82′
🟨 Marko Vešović
M. Coco 🔁
↦ Chirivella
88′
88′
🔁 E. Cəfərquliyev
↦ T. Bayramov
88′
🔁 A. Hüseynov
↦ M. Vešović
2–1 I. Ganago ⚽
J. Castelletto
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Nantes

4-2-3-1
1 A. Lafont G
24 S. Corchia D
21 J. Castelletto D
3 Andrei Girotto D
29 Q. Merlin D
8 S. Moutoussamy M
5 Chirivella M
7 E. Guessand M
10 L. Blas M
55 K. Bamba M
31 Mostafa Mohamed F
Bench (11)
17 M. Sissoko
27 M. Simon
12 D. Appiah
14 I. Ganago
11 M. Coco
19 M. Achi
22 G. Manvelyan
30 D. Petrić
4 N. Pallois
16 R. Descamps
2 Fábio

Coach: A. Kombouare

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
1 Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev G
29 M. Vešović D
13 B. Mustafazadə D
81 K. Medina D
27 T. Bayramov D
2 Q. Qarayev M
7 R. Almeyda M
20 Kady M
19 F. Ozobić M
10 A. Zoubir M
11 O. Kwabena F
Bench (12)
8 M. Janković
77 R. Şeydayev
6 Júlio Romão
44 E. Cəfərquliyev
30 A. Hüseynov
5 M. Medvedev
89 A. Ramazanov
18 İ. İbrahimli
4 R. Məmmədov
22 M. Qurbanlı
23 L. Gugeshashvili
90 N. Axundzadə

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Kehlet · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.