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Europa League
Referee: J Beaton
Qarabag
U S S S U
1–0
Full-time
Molde
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Qarabag Molde
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,87 xG 0,24
62% Possession 38%
19 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
9 Corners 1
3 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Qarabag Molde
20′
🟨 Emil Breivik
34′
🟨 Martin Ellingsen
Half-time 0–0
47′
🟨 Marcus Andre Kaasa
1–0 Leandro Andrade ⚽
55′
70′
🔁 E. Hestad
↦ M. Ellingsen
70′
🔁 M. Linnes
↦ K. Haugen
70′
🔁 F. Gulbrandsen
↦ M. Eikrem
74′
🔁 K. Eriksen
↦ M. Kaasa
H. Keyta 🔁
↦ Leandro Andrade
81′
T. Bayramov 🔁
↦ Y. Benzia
81′
B. Hüseynov 🔁
↦ M. Medvedev
82′
Marko Janković 🟨
84′
Kevin Medina 🟨
87′
87′
🔁 M. Grødem
↦ V. Berisha
N. Axundzadə 🔁
↦ Matheus Silva
88′
Júlio Romão 🟨
91′
Patrick Andrade 🔁
↦ Juninho
93′
97′
🟨 Kristian Eriksen
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 A. Lunev G
2 Matheus Silva D
5 M. Medvedev D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cəfərquliyev D
6 Júlio Romão M
8 M. Janković M
15 Leandro Andrade M
7 Y. Benzia M
10 A. Zoubir M
18 Juninho F
Bench (11)
17 H. Keyta
27 T. Bayramov
55 B. Hüseynov
90 N. Axundzadə
66 Patrick Andrade
23 L. Gugeshashvili
83 N. Quliyev
30 A. Hüseynov
13 B. Mustafazadə
20 R. Almeyda
89 A. Ramazanov

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Molde

3-5-2
1 J. Karlstrøm G
3 C. Øyvann D
2 M. Bjørnbak D
25 A. Hagelskjær D
31 M. Løvik M
15 M. Kaasa M
6 M. Ellingsen M
16 E. Breivik M
28 K. Haugen M
7 M. Eikrem F
9 V. Berisha F
Bench (11)
5 E. Hestad
21 M. Linnes
8 F. Gulbrandsen
20 K. Eriksen
22 M. Grødem
12 O. Petersen
33 N. Ødegård
10 E. Kitolano
4 C. Cappis
34 P. Lervik
19 E. Haugan

Coach: E. Moe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.