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Europa League
Referee: T Stieler
Porto
T S S T S
3–3
Full-time
Man United
S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
3,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,13 xG 1,61
47% Possession 53%
14 Shots 29
7 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 11
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Porto Man United
7′
M. Rashford 0–1
C. Eriksen
20′
R. Højlund 0–2
M. Rashford
1–2 Pepê
27′
Samuel Omorodion 🟨
31′
32′
🟨 Bruno Fernandes
2–2 Samu Omorodion
João Mário
34′
Half-time 2–2
46′
🔁 A. Garnacho
↦ M. Rashford
3–2 Samu Omorodion
Pepê
50′
Martim Fernandes 🔁
↦ Pepê
63′
68′
🔁 J. Zirkzee
↦ R. Højlund
68′
🔁 Antony
↦ A. Diallo
M. Grujić 🔁
↦ Samu Omorodion
78′
Fábio Vieira 🔁
↦ S. Eustaquio
78′
D. Gül 🔁
↦ João Mário
78′
78′
🔁 H. Maguire
↦ Lisandro Martínez
79′
🔁 J. Evans
↦ M. de Ligt
81′
🟨 Bruno Fernandes
81′
🟥 Bruno Fernandes
91′
H. Maguire 3–3
C. Eriksen
D. Namaso 🔁
↦ A. Varela
92′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa G
23 João Mário D
97 Zé Pedro D
24 N. Pérez D
74 Francisco Moura D
6 S. Eustaquio M
22 A. Varela M
16 Nico González M
11 Pepê F
9 Samu Omorodion F
13 Galeno F
Bench (12)
52 Martim Fernandes
8 M. Grujić
10 Fábio Vieira
27 D. Gül
19 D. Namaso
86 Rodrigo Mora
17 Iván Jaime
15 Vasco Sousa
70 Gonçalo Borges
20 André Franco
14 Cláudio Ramos
3 Tiago Djaló

Coach: Vítor Bruno

Man United

4-2-3-1
24 A. Onana G
3 N. Mazraoui D
4 M. de Ligt D
6 Lisandro Martínez D
20 Diogo Dalot D
18 Casemiro M
14 C. Eriksen M
16 A. Diallo M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
10 M. Rashford M
9 R. Højlund F
Bench (11)
17 A. Garnacho
11 J. Zirkzee
21 Antony
5 H. Maguire
35 J. Evans
22 T. Heaton
44 D. Gore
43 T. Collyer
2 V. Lindelöf
25 M. Ugarte
1 A. Bayındır

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.