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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Southampton

S T T S T

0–3

Full-time

Man United

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,3

0,7

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,12 xG 2,67

44% Possession 56%

6 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 7

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 7

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 19. · Man United 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.1	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+4.9	9
3	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.6	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.5	7
6	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
7	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.1	6
8	Bournemouth	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
9	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
10	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.0	4
11	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.8	4
12	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
13	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.8	3
14	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
15	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.4	1
16	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
17	Ipswich	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.8	1
18	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-6	-0.8	1
19	Southampton	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.0	0
20	Everton	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
2	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.4	3
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.0	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
8	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
10	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.1	1
14	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
16	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.0	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.8	0
19	Everton	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0
20	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	+0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.0	6
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
4	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.7	4
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
6	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	-0.3	3
7	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
10	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
11	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
12	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.2	1
13	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
14	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
15	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
17	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
18	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.0	0
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.