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Europa League
Referee: J Beaton
AZ Alkmaar
T T T U T
3–1
Full-time
Fenerbahce
U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Fenerbahce
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,83 xG 2,32
47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Fenerbahce
Half-time 0–0
R. Daal 🔁
↦ M. Lahdo
46′
49′
🟨 Allan Saint-Maximin
Dave Kwakman 🟨
51′
54′
🟨 İsmail Yüksek
58′
🔁 Y. En-Nesyri
↦ İ. Yüksek
58′
🔁 S. Szymański
↦ A. Saint-Maximin
1–0 R. Daal ⚽
T. Parrott
59′
62′
❌ Youssef En-Nesyri
penalty missed
63′
🟨 Rodrigo Becão
K. Smit 🔁
↦ J. Addai
64′
70′
⚽ Y. En-Nesyri 1–1
E. Džeko
D. Kasius 🔁
↦ M. de Wit
72′
M. Meerdink 🔁
↦ T. Parrott
72′
2–1 K. Smit ⚽
S. Mijnans
75′
79′
🔁 M. Yandaş
↦ Rodrigo Becão
81′
🔁 C. Tosun
↦ M. Müldür
84′
🟨 Fred
86′
🟨 Bright Osayi-Samuel
3–1 D. Kasius ⚽
K. Smit
87′
W. Goes 🔁
↦ S. Maikuma
88′
Ro-Zangelo Daal 🟨
92′
94′
🟨 Edin Džeko
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
22 M. Dekker D
34 M. de Wit D
33 D. Kwakman M
10 S. Mijnans M
6 P. Koopmeiners M
17 J. Addai F
9 T. Parrott F
23 M. Lahdo F
Bench (8)
37 R. Daal
26 K. Smit
30 D. Kasius
35 M. Meerdink
3 W. Goes
12 H. Verhulst
52 E. Dijkstra
41 J. Zoet

Coach: M. Martens

Fenerbahce

4-3-3
40 D. Livaković G
21 B. Osayi-Samuel D
50 Rodrigo Becão D
4 Ç. Söyüncü D
16 M. Müldür D
5 İ. Yüksek M
34 S. Amrabat M
13 Fred M
10 D. Tadić F
9 E. Džeko F
97 A. Saint-Maximin F
Bench (11)
19 Y. En-Nesyri
53 S. Szymański
8 M. Yandaş
23 C. Tosun
54 E. Çetin
1 İ. Eğribayat
80 K. Akyazı
42 M. Dursun
81 Ş. Toğrak
3 S. Akaydin
95 Y. Akçiçek

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.