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Conference League
Referee: F Letexier
Apoel Nicosia
U T S U T
2–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Apoel Nicosia Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,8
Scored
0,7
3,2
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 2/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
1,5
4,0
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,76 xG 1,45
37% Possession 63%
10 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Apoel Nicosia Fiorentina
Sergio Tejera 🟨
20′
1–0 A. Donis ⚽
Y. El-Arabi
37′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 D. Abagna ⚽
46′
46′
🔁 L. Beltrán
↦ Y. Adli
48′
🟨 Matias Moreno
57′
🔁 Dodô
↦ M. Moreno
57′
🔁 L. Ranieri
↦ C. Biraghi
65′
🔁 E. Bove
↦ A. Richardson
G. Satsias 🔁
↦ Sergio Tejera
67′
69′
🔁 R. Gosens
↦ F. Parisi
72′
🟨 Lucas Martínez Quarta
74′
⚽ J. Ikoné 2–1
C. Kouamé
Anastasios Donis 🟨
79′
L. Dvali 🔁
↦ A. Donis
79′
A. Bah 🔁
↦ Y. El-Arabi
88′
P. Polycarpou 🔁
↦ R. Petrović
88′
Issam Chebake 🟨
89′
Konstantinos Laifis 🟨
96′
99′
🟨 Dodô
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Apoel Nicosia

4-1-4-1
27 V. Belec G
16 M. Sušić D
3 R. Petrović D
34 K. Laifis D
19 Xavi Quintillà D
70 G. Kostadinov M
29 I. Chebake M
8 Sergio Tejera M
17 D. Abagna M
11 A. Donis M
9 Y. El-Arabi F
Bench (10)
18 G. Satsias
5 L. Dvali
12 A. Bah
35 P. Polycarpou
10 Marquinhos
30 M. Corbu
22 A. Christodoulou
7 M. Meyer
78 S. Michos
77 D. Ndongala

Coach: Manolo Jiménez

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
33 M. Kayode D
22 M. Moreno D
28 L. Martínez Quarta D
3 C. Biraghi D
8 R. Mandragora M
29 Y. Adli M
65 F. Parisi M
11 J. Ikoné F
99 C. Kouamé F
24 A. Richardson F
Bench (12)
9 L. Beltrán
2 Dodô
6 L. Ranieri
4 E. Bove
21 R. Gosens
7 R. Sottil
15 P. Comuzzo
30 T. Martinelli
5 M. Pongračić
23 A. Colpani
43 David de Gea
66 T. Rubino

Coach: R. Palladino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.