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Europa League
Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro
AZ Alkmaar
T T S S S
4–1
Full-time
Galatasaray
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Galatasaray
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
38%
38%
Points per game
1,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
50%
88%
Both score Ø 82%
63%
100%
Average goals
3,3
4,4
Scored
1,6
2,4
Conceded
1,6
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,65 xG 0,52
55% Possession 45%
17 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Galatasaray
11′
🟨 Kaan Ayhan
1–0 S. Mijnans
12′
20′
R. Sallai 1–1
2–1 T. Parrott
37′
43′
🟨 Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Half-time 2–1
David Möller Wolfe 🟨
48′
51′
🟨 Kaan Ayhan
51′
🟥 Kaan Ayhan
56′
🔁 K. Demirbay
↦ D. Mertens
57′
🟨 Álvaro Morata
3–1 J. Clasie
E. Poku
57′
4–1 D. Møller Wolfe
66′
71′
🔁 Y. Demir
↦ E. Jelert
71′
🔁 M. Baltacı
↦ B. Kutlu
Jordy Clasie 🟨
75′
Z. Buurmeester 🔁
↦ P. Koopmeiners
77′
D. Kasius 🔁
↦ S. Maikuma
77′
K. Smit 🔁
↦ E. Poku
83′
R. Daal 🔁
↦ M. Lahdo
83′
S. van Duijn 🔁
↦ T. Parrott
90′
93′
🔁 B. Luş
↦ Gabriel Sara
93′
🔁 E. Akman
↦ Álvaro Morata
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
3 W. Goes D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
8 J. Clasie M
21 E. Poku M
10 S. Mijnans M
23 M. Lahdo M
9 T. Parrott F
Bench (10)
28 Z. Buurmeester
30 D. Kasius
26 K. Smit
37 R. Daal
78 S. van Duijn
22 M. Dekker
4 B. Martins Indi
34 M. de Wit
41 J. Zoet
12 H. Verhulst

Coach: M. Martens

Galatasaray

3-4-1-2
1 F. Muslera G
26 C. Cuesta D
42 A. Bardakcı D
18 B. Kutlu D
7 R. Sallai M
23 K. Ayhan M
20 Gabriel Sara M
24 E. Jelert M
10 D. Mertens F
77 Álvaro Morata F
53 B. Yılmaz F
Bench (10)
8 K. Demirbay
30 Y. Demir
90 M. Baltacı
67 B. Luş
83 E. Akman
65 K. Subaşı
19 G. Güvenç
50 J. Yılmaz
68 F. Koçak
72 Ç. Balta

Coach: O. Buruk

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.