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Eredivisie

Referee: R Dieperink

AZ Alkmaar

S U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

U U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

47%

11%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

65%

37%

Both score Ø 64%

59%

68%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,10 xG 0,89

63% Possession 37%

21 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

3 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Sparta Rotterdam 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	16	1	3	+45	+27.8	49
2	Ajax	19	14	3	2	+24	+15.1	45
3	Utrecht	20	12	5	3	+7	-0.0	41
4	Feyenoord	19	10	6	3	+18	+19.3	36
5	Twente	18	10	4	4	+15	+15.7	34
6	Go Ahead Eagles	19	9	4	6	+7	+11.2	31
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+5	+6.8	28
8	For Sittard	20	7	4	9	-9	-1.7	25
9	NAC Breda	20	8	1	11	-10	-10.6	25
10	Heerenveen	19	7	3	9	-7	-3.6	24
11	Nijmegen	19	7	2	10	+3	+5.3	23
12	Willem II	20	6	5	9	-4	-15.1	23
13	Zwolle	20	6	5	9	-6	-14.8	23
14	Groningen	19	5	5	9	-12	-10.7	20
15	Heracles	19	4	7	8	-13	-14.4	19
16	Sparta Rotterdam	19	2	8	9	-12	-0.8	14
17	Waalwijk	20	2	5	13	-22	-15.7	11
18	Almere City	19	2	4	13	-29	-13.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	9	1	0	+30	+15.8	28
2	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Go Ahead Eagles	10	6	2	2	+9	+12.0	20
5	Heerenveen	9	5	3	1	+7	+2.4	18
6	NAC Breda	10	6	0	4	+1	-0.9	18
7	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
8	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	-3	+3.6	17
9	Groningen	10	4	4	2	+5	+0.5	16
10	Zwolle	10	5	0	5	+1	-3.4	15
11	For Sittard	10	5	0	5	-3	+1.9	15
12	Nijmegen	10	4	2	4	+9	+8.1	14
13	Willem II	10	3	3	4	+3	-4.2	12
14	Heracles	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.9	12
15	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-7	-6.1	8
17	Almere City	10	2	1	7	-16	-3.5	7
18	Sparta Rotterdam	10	0	5	5	-9	+1.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	10	7	3	0	+10	-3.7	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	0	3	+15	+11.9	21
3	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.0	20
4	Feyenoord	10	5	4	1	+11	+8.4	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	3	2	+5	+1.3	18
6	Twente	9	4	1	4	+0	+2.5	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
8	Willem II	10	3	2	5	-7	-10.9	11
9	For Sittard	10	2	4	4	-6	-3.6	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.9	9
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	Zwolle	10	1	5	4	-7	-11.4	8
13	NAC Breda	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
14	Heracles	9	2	1	6	-13	-12.5	7
15	Heerenveen	10	2	0	8	-14	-6.0	6
16	Groningen	9	1	1	7	-17	-11.2	4
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3
18	Waalwijk	10	0	3	7	-15	-9.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.