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Conference League
Referee: P Orel
Fiorentina
U U U T U
1–1
Full-time
Rīgas FS
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Rīgas FS
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,0
2,7
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
This season — Conference League · 2/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
50%
25%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
1,5
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

76% Possession 24%
32 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
8 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina Rīgas FS
33′
🟨 Stefan Panić
43′
🟨 Žiga Lipušček
Half-time 0–0
R. Sottil 🔁
↦ C. Kouamé
46′
54′
🟨 Vladislavs Sorokins
L. Jović 🔁
↦ Arthur Cabral
55′
1–0 A. Barák ⚽
C. Biraghi
56′
62′
🔁 K. Friesenbichler
↦ T. Šimkovič
68′
🔁 J. Vlalukin
↦ V. Sorokins
Y. Maleh 🔁
↦ G. Bonaventura
72′
74′
⚽ A. Ilić 1–1
K. Friesenbichler
R. Saponara 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
77′
R. Mandragora 🔁
↦ A. Barák
77′
Youssef Maleh 🟨
85′
87′
🟨 Andrej Ilić
89′
🔁 D. Rakels
↦ Emerson Deocleciano
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-3-3
95 P. Gollini G
2 Dodô D
28 L. Martínez D
16 L. Ranieri D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
72 A. Barák M
99 C. Kouamé F
9 Arthur Cabral F
11 J. Ikoné F
Bench (12)
33 R. Sottil
7 L. Jović
14 Y. Maleh
8 R. Saponara
38 R. Mandragora
44 D. Krastev
27 S. Żurkowski
23 L. Venuti
40 C. Favasuli
42 A. Bianco
15 A. Terzić
1 P. Terracciano

Coach: V. Italiano

Rīgas FS

3-4-3
12 P. Šteinbors G
92 V. Jagodinskis D
21 E. Stuglis D
43 Ž. Lipušček D
2 V. Sorokins M
28 S. Panić M
24 T. Šarić M
25 P. Mareš M
81 T. Šimkovič F
19 A. Ilić F
9 Emerson Deocleciano F
Bench (10)
30 K. Friesenbichler
66 J. Vlalukin
10 D. Rakels
29 Bill
4 V. Maksimenko
13 J. Ņerugals
77 K. Dubra
99 G. Žaleiko
1 V. Černiauskas
14 R. Varslavāns

Coach: V. Morozs

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.