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Conference League
Referee: A Palabıyık
Villarreal
S S S U S
4–3
Full-time
Lech Poznan
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
0,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+1,2
This season — Conference League · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,8
Scored
3,0
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

56% Possession 44%
15 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 1
1 Offside 5
14 Free kicks against 8
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Villarreal Lech Poznan
2′
⚽ M. Skóraś 0–1
M. Ishak
1–1 S. Chukwueze ⚽
J. Mojica
32′
2–1 Álex Baena ⚽
José Luis Morales
36′
3–1 Álex Baena ⚽
S. Chukwueze
40′
Half-time 3–1
Aïssa Mandi 🟨
46′
N. Jackson 🔁
↦ Manu Trigueros
46′
46′
⚽ M. Ishak 3–2
Jorge Cuenca 🟨
51′
61′
⚽ M. Ishak 3–3
M. Skóraś
Gerard Moreno 🔁
↦ José Luis Morales
63′
Dani Parejo 🔁
↦ Manu Morlanes
63′
Kiko Femenía 🔁
↦ Dela
63′
Samuel Chukwueze 🟨
64′
71′
🔁 F. Szymczak
↦ João Amaral
78′
🔁 K. Velde
↦ M. Ishak
78′
🔁 G. Tsitaishvili
↦ M. Skóraś
Yeremy Pino 🔁
↦ S. Chukwueze
80′
Alejandro Baena 🟨
82′
85′
🟨 Radosław Murawski
4–3 F. Coquelin ⚽
89′
90′
🔁 Afonso Sousa
↦ N. Kvekveskiri
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
35 F. Jörgensen G
37 Dela D
23 A. Mandi D
5 Jorge Cuenca D
12 J. Mojica D
11 S. Chukwueze M
19 F. Coquelin M
20 Manu Morlanes M
14 Manu Trigueros M
16 Álex Baena F
22 José Luis Morales F
Bench (11)
15 N. Jackson
7 Gerard Moreno
10 Dani Parejo
2 Kiko Femenía
21 Yeremy Pino
17 G. Lo Celso
4 Pau Torres
6 É. Capoue
31 Iker Álvarez
24 Pedraza
13 G. Rulli

Coach: Unai Emery

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
35 F. Bednarek G
2 Joel Pereira D
25 F. Dagerstål D
16 A. Milić D
5 Pedro Rebocho D
6 J. Karlström M
30 N. Kvekveskiri M
21 M. Skóraś M
22 R. Murawski M
24 João Amaral M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (12)
17 F. Szymczak
23 K. Velde
14 G. Tsitaishvili
7 Afonso Sousa
31 K. Bąkowski
37 Ľ. Šatka
20 M. Pingot
43 A. Kozubal
3 B. Douglas
27 M. Żukowski
1 A. Rudko
44 A. Czerwiński

Coach: J. van den Brom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Palabıyık · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,46 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.