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Conference League
Referee: H Nalbandyan
HJK Helsinki
S T U S T
1–0
Full-time
Dinamo Minsk
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

HJK Helsinki Dinamo Minsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,7
1,8
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/1 matches
Win Ø 20%
40%
0%
Points per game
1,4
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 90%
80%
100%
Both score Ø 80%
60%
100%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,6
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,88 xG 1,49
51% Possession 49%
16 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 11
2 Offside 4
9 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

HJK Helsinki Dinamo Minsk
25′
🟨 Steven Alfred
40′
🟨 Denis Polyakov
Half-time 1–0
1–0 L. Möller ⚽
46′
56′
🔁 V. Kalinin
↦ A. Selyava
56′
🔁 Pedro Igor
↦ P. Sedko
Georgios Antzoulas 🟨
62′
H. Bandé 🔁
↦ S. Hostikka
65′
67′
🔁 B. Amian
↦ D. Kulikov
Liam Möller 🟨
71′
L. Plange 🔁
↦ L. Erwin
79′
A. Tanaka 🔁
↦ L. Möller
79′
79′
🔁 T. Melnichenko
↦ N. Demchenko
79′
🔁 I. Shkolik
↦ A. Gavrilovich
Luke Plange ❌
penalty missed
82′
82′
🟥 Trofim Melnichenko
B. Lyons-Foster 🔁
↦ G. Antzoulas
89′
97′
ℹ️ Vladislav Kalinin
VAR: Goal cancelled
100′
🟨 Vladislav Kalinin
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

3-4-3
25 T. Nijhuis G
3 G. Antzoulas D
4 J. Toivio D
5 D. O'Shaughnessy D
28 M. Ylitolva M
23 O. Kökçü M
8 G. Kanellopoulos M
30 N. Pallas M
22 L. Möller F
94 L. Erwin F
7 S. Hostikka F
Bench (12)
17 H. Bandé
9 L. Plange
37 A. Tanaka
2 B. Lyons-Foster
24 M. Boamah
21 N. Kujasalo
99 A. Albanese
27 K. Kouassivi-Benissan
85 N. Mäenpää
10 L. Lingman
80 K. Palumets
42 K. Meriluoto

Coach: T. Korkeakunnas

Dinamo Minsk

4-3-3
21 F. Lapoukhov G
2 V. Pigas D
33 D. Polyakov D
4 A. Gavrilovich D
66 Raí Lopes D
24 D. Kulikov M
8 A. Selyava M
88 N. Demchenko M
74 P. Sedko F
9 S. Alfred F
17 I. Bakhar F
Bench (12)
26 V. Kalinin
25 Pedro Igor
29 B. Amian
81 T. Melnichenko
80 I. Shkolik
10 V. Khvashchinskiy
3 J. Okoro
11 G. Zherdev
13 I. Shimakovich
49 A. Karatay
6 S. Politevich
19 D. Podstrelov

Coach: V. Skripchenko

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.