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Conference League
Referee: Matteo Marcenaro
Ilves
T U T T U
4–3
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ilves AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
3,8
Scored
1,2
2,8
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

35% Possession 65%
14 Shots 23
7 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 9
7 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ilves AZ Alkmaar
1–0 R. Riski ⚽
M. Rale
8′
16′
⚽ T. Parrott 1–1
K. Smit
43′
🟨 Wouter Goes
2–1 R. Riski ⚽
V. Ulundu
45′
Half-time 2–1
48′
🟨 Peer Koopmeiners
O. Multala 🔁
↦ O. Tiitinen
52′
58′
🔁 S. Mijnans
↦ J. Clasie
61′
⚽ S. Mijnans 2–2
T. Parrott
A. Raymond 🔁
↦ V. Ulundu
62′
A. Akinyemi 🔁
↦ R. Riski
62′
3–2 A. Akinyemi ⚽
M. Soderback
68′
4–2 M. Soderback ⚽
M. Stjopin
71′
73′
🔁 I. Jensen
↦ R. Daal
73′
🔁 Z. Buurmeester
↦ K. Smit
73′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
T. Miettunen 🔁
↦ A. Maenpaa
74′
J. Kilo 🔁
↦ M. Stjopin
74′
78′
🔁 Penetra
↦ M. Dekker
90′
⚽ M. Meerdink 4–3
S. Mijnans
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Ilves

3-4-2-1
1 O. Virtanen G
22 A. Maenpaa D
5 S. Vaisanen D
3 M. Rale D
18 V. Ulundu M
20 O. Tiitinen M
30 J. Kanga M
19 O. Jukkola M
8 M. Stjopin F
17 M. Soderback F
10 R. Riski F
Bench (11)
12 F. Krkalic
32 L. Vayrynen
9 T. Hytonen
13 K. Wallius
16 T. Miettunen
21 J. Moisio
23 A. Raymond
24 V. Kumpu
27 A. Akinyemi
28 J. Kilo
72 O. Multala

Coach: Joonas Rantanen

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
41 J. Zoet G
30 D. Kasius D
3 W. Goes D
4 M. Dekker D
34 M. de Wit D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
8 J. Clasie M
7 E. Poku M
26 K. Smit M
27 R. Daal M
9 T. Parrott F
Bench (11)
12 H. Verhulst
31 D. Deen
5 Penetra
10 S. Mijnans
11 I. Sadiq
15 M. Chavez Garcia
17 I. Jensen
21 D. Kwakman
22 E. Dijkstra
28 Z. Buurmeester
35 M. Meerdink

Coach: Maarten Martens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.