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Primeira Liga
Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves
Benfica
S T
3–2
Full-time
Moreirense
T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Moreirense
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
2,0
0,0
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-2,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
2,0
0,0
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

76% Possession 24%
24 Shots 4
8 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
11 Corners 1
1 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 8. · Moreirense 17. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 Arouca 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
4 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
5 Sp Lisbon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Boavista 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Benfica 2 1 0 1 +3 3
9 U. Madeira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Sp Braga 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Nacional 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Estoril 3 1 0 2 -4 3
13 Belenenses 2 0 2 0 +0 2
14 Maritimo 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Guimaraes 2 0 1 1 -3 1
16 Tondela 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Moreirense 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 Academica 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Benfica Moreirense
29′
⚽ Rafael Martins 0–1
Pizzi 🟨
40′
42′
🟨 Ernest Ohemeng
Half-time 0–1
Talisca 🔁
↦ Pizzi
46′
Goncalo Guedes 🔁
↦ Victor Andrade
46′
50′
🟨 Filipe Gonçalves
64′
🔁 R. Cardozo
↦ Iuri Medeiros
70′
🔁 E. Boateng
↦ Rafael Martins
R. Jiménez 🔁
↦ Eliseu
73′
1–1 R. Jiménez ⚽
75′
2–1 A. Samaris ⚽
76′
81′
🔁 Alan Schons
↦ Filipe Gonçalves
84′
⚽ R. Cardozo 2–2
3–2 Jonas ⚽
86′
90′
🟨 Emmanuel Boateng
90′
🟨 Ramon Cardozo
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Benfica

12 Júlio César G
4 Luisão D
19 Eliseu D
2 L. López D
50 Nelsinho D
10 N. Gaitán M
21 Pizzi M
7 A. Samaris M
17 Jonas F
11 K. Mitroglou F
31 Victor Andrade M
Bench (7)
30 Talisca
20 Goncalo Guedes
9 R. Jiménez
1 Ederson Moraes
15 O. John
5 L. Fejsa
34 André Almeida

Moreirense

51 I. Stefanović
6 Evaldo
4 Danielson
95 P. Sagna D
3 André Micael D
23 Vitor Gomes M
66 Filipe Gonçalves M
60 João Palhinha M
11 E. Ohemeng F
99 Rafael Martins F
45 Iuri Medeiros F
Bench (7)
9 R. Cardozo
29 E. Boateng
7 Alan Schons
13 João Sousa
27 Patrick
92 Victor Hugo
25 Luis Carlos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves · 23 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.