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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Montpellier

S S S T U

2–1

Full-time

Guingamp

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Guingamp

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 44%

53%

35%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

9 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Montpellier 16. · Guingamp 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	3	0	+32	45
2	Angers	17	8	6	3	+7	30
3	Caen	18	9	3	6	+2	30
4	Monaco	17	7	7	3	+1	28
5	Nice	18	7	5	6	+8	26
6	Lyon	17	7	5	5	+5	26
7	St Etienne	17	8	2	7	+0	26
8	Lorient	17	6	7	4	+4	25
9	Rennes	18	5	9	4	+2	24
10	Marseille	17	6	5	6	+7	23
11	Nantes	17	6	4	7	-3	22
12	Reims	18	5	6	7	-3	21
13	Bordeaux	17	5	6	6	-5	21
14	Lille	17	4	8	5	-1	20
15	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	5	5	7	-3	20
16	Montpellier	17	5	4	8	-3	19
17	Guingamp	17	5	4	8	-7	19
18	Bastia	17	5	3	9	-6	18
19	Toulouse	17	3	6	8	-12	15
20	Troyes	17	0	6	11	-25	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+17	19
2	St Etienne	9	5	2	2	+6	17
3	Bordeaux	9	5	2	2	+4	17
4	Caen	9	5	1	3	-1	16
5	Lorient	9	4	3	2	+6	15
6	Bastia	9	5	0	4	+3	15
7	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+4	14
8	Angers	9	3	5	1	+2	14
9	Reims	10	3	4	3	+2	13
10	Guingamp	8	3	3	2	+3	12
11	Montpellier	9	4	0	5	-1	12
12	Lille	8	3	2	3	+1	11
13	Nantes	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Marseille	9	2	4	3	+6	10
15	Nice	8	3	1	4	+3	10
16	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	10
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	2	4	2	+1	10
18	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	10
19	Monaco	8	2	4	2	-2	10
20	Troyes	9	0	4	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Monaco	9	5	3	1	+3	18
3	Nice	10	4	4	2	+5	16
4	Angers	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Rennes	9	3	5	1	+4	14
6	Caen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Marseille	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Lorient	8	2	4	2	-2	10
11	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	3	1	5	-4	10
12	Lille	9	1	6	2	-2	9
13	St Etienne	8	3	0	5	-6	9
14	Reims	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Montpellier	8	1	4	3	-2	7
16	Guingamp	9	2	1	6	-10	7
17	Toulouse	9	1	2	6	-13	5
18	Bordeaux	8	0	4	4	-9	4
19	Bastia	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Troyes	8	0	2	6	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.