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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Man United

U T S T S

1–0

Full-time

Brighton

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

58%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

25%

42%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

0,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 2. · Brighton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Man United	12	8	2	2	+21	26
3	Chelsea	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Tottenham	12	7	2	3	+11	23
5	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Arsenal	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Burnley	12	6	4	2	+3	22
8	Watford	12	5	3	4	-2	18
9	Brighton	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	-9	15
11	Leicester	13	3	5	5	-2	14
12	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Bournemouth	12	4	1	7	-3	13
14	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-5	13
15	Stoke	12	3	4	5	-9	13
16	Everton	12	3	3	6	-12	12
17	West Brom	12	2	4	6	-9	10
18	West Ham	13	2	4	7	-14	10
19	Swansea	12	2	2	8	-8	8
20	Crystal Palace	12	1	2	9	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+11	18
3	Man City	6	5	1	0	+20	16
4	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Huddersfield	6	3	2	1	-1	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Everton	6	3	0	3	-4	9
12	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
14	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
15	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	+1	7
16	Leicester	6	2	1	3	+0	7
17	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
18	West Brom	6	1	3	2	-4	6
19	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-5	5
20	Swansea	6	1	0	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+7	12
4	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+0	11
5	Watford	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Man United	6	2	2	2	+3	8
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
10	Bournemouth	6	2	0	4	-4	6
11	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-2	5
12	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-6	5
14	Arsenal	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Everton	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	West Ham	7	0	3	4	-10	3
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.