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Championship

Referee: Lee Probert

Birmingham

T U T S S

0–3

Full-time

Derby

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

This season — Championship · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 40%

23%

56%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

19%

44%

Both score Ø 38%

31%

44%

Average goals

1,9

2,5

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 23. · Derby 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	26	19	4	3	+30	61
2	Cardiff	27	15	5	7	+15	50
3	Derby	25	14	6	5	+18	48
4	Bristol City	26	13	8	5	+9	47
5	Sheffield United	27	13	4	10	+9	43
6	Leeds	26	13	4	9	+9	43
7	Middlesbrough	24	12	4	8	+10	40
8	Preston	26	10	10	6	+4	40
9	Fulham	24	10	8	6	+6	38
10	Aston Villa	23	10	7	6	+12	37
11	Brentford	26	9	10	7	+4	37
12	Ipswich	26	11	3	12	+0	36
13	Norwich	26	9	7	10	-5	34
14	Nott'm Forest	26	10	2	14	-9	32
15	Sheffield Weds	27	7	10	10	-4	31
16	Millwall	26	7	9	10	-1	30
17	QPR	26	7	9	10	-8	30
18	Reading	26	7	7	12	-5	28
19	Barnsley	26	6	8	12	-10	26
20	Bolton	26	6	7	13	-18	25
21	Hull	26	5	9	12	-5	24
22	Burton Albion	26	6	6	14	-23	24
23	Birmingham	26	6	5	15	-20	23
24	Sunderland	27	4	10	13	-18	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	13	10	2	1	+18	32
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	13	8	2	3	+13	26
4	Sheffield United	14	8	2	4	+10	26
5	Millwall	13	7	3	3	+8	24
6	Bristol City	13	7	3	3	+7	24
7	Ipswich	13	7	2	4	+9	23
8	Middlesbrough	12	7	2	3	+6	23
9	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+11	22
10	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+8	22
11	Brentford	13	5	7	1	+7	22
12	QPR	13	6	4	3	+3	22
13	Nott'm Forest	13	7	0	6	+0	21
14	Fulham	12	5	5	2	+4	20
15	Preston	13	5	5	3	+3	20
16	Sheffield Weds	13	4	5	4	+0	17
17	Norwich	13	4	5	4	+0	17
18	Bolton	13	5	2	6	-3	17
19	Birmingham	13	5	2	6	-5	17
20	Hull	13	4	4	5	+7	16
21	Reading	13	3	4	6	-3	13
22	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-5	13
23	Sunderland	13	1	5	7	-8	8
24	Burton Albion	13	2	2	9	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Bristol City	13	6	5	2	+2	23
3	Derby	12	6	4	2	+5	22
4	Leeds	13	7	0	6	+1	21
5	Preston	13	5	5	3	+1	20
6	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	-1	20
7	Fulham	12	5	3	4	+2	18
8	Middlesbrough	12	5	2	5	+4	17
9	Sheffield United	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Norwich	13	5	2	6	-5	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	4	5	-7	16
12	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+1	15
13	Reading	13	4	3	6	-2	15
14	Brentford	13	4	3	6	-3	15
15	Sheffield Weds	14	3	5	6	-4	14
16	Sunderland	14	3	5	6	-10	14
17	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-5	13
18	Ipswich	13	4	1	8	-9	13
19	Nott'm Forest	13	3	2	8	-9	11
20	QPR	13	1	5	7	-11	8
21	Hull	13	1	5	7	-12	8
22	Bolton	13	1	5	7	-15	8
23	Millwall	13	0	6	7	-9	6
24	Birmingham	13	1	3	9	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.