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Championship

Referee: David Coote

Aston Villa

T S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Burton Albion

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burton Albion

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,3

This season — Championship · 26/29 matches

Win Ø 36%

50%

21%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

55%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

6 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Burton Albion 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	29	20	5	4	+29	65
2	Derby	28	15	8	5	+21	53
3	Cardiff	28	15	6	7	+15	51
4	Bristol City	30	14	9	7	+9	51
5	Fulham	27	13	8	6	+15	47
6	Aston Villa	26	13	7	6	+16	46
7	Sheffield United	29	14	4	11	+9	46
8	Preston	29	11	12	6	+7	45
9	Middlesbrough	27	13	5	9	+12	44
10	Leeds	29	13	5	11	+7	44
11	Brentford	29	11	10	8	+6	43
12	Ipswich	29	12	4	13	+0	40
13	Norwich	29	11	7	11	-4	40
14	Millwall	29	8	11	10	+0	35
15	Nott'm Forest	29	11	2	16	-11	35
16	Sheffield Weds	29	7	12	10	-4	33
17	QPR	29	8	9	12	-11	33
18	Reading	29	8	8	13	-4	32
19	Bolton	29	7	8	14	-19	29
20	Barnsley	29	6	9	14	-14	27
21	Birmingham	29	7	6	16	-21	27
22	Hull	29	5	11	13	-6	26
23	Sunderland	29	5	10	14	-19	25
24	Burton Albion	29	6	6	17	-33	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	14	10	2	2	+16	32
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	14	8	3	3	+13	27
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+8	27
5	Ipswich	15	8	2	5	+9	26
6	Sheffield United	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Millwall	15	7	5	3	+8	26
8	Aston Villa	12	7	4	1	+13	25
9	Brentford	15	6	7	2	+8	25
10	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+5	24
11	Fulham	13	6	5	2	+10	23
12	Leeds	14	6	4	4	+7	22
13	QPR	14	6	4	4	+0	22
14	Preston	14	5	6	3	+3	21
15	Bolton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
16	Nott'm Forest	15	7	0	8	-4	21
17	Birmingham	15	6	2	7	-6	20
18	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
19	Sheffield Weds	14	4	6	4	+0	18
20	Norwich	14	4	5	5	-1	17
21	Barnsley	15	3	5	7	-7	14
22	Reading	14	3	4	7	-4	13
23	Sunderland	14	2	5	7	-7	11
24	Burton Albion	15	2	2	11	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Derby	14	7	5	2	+8	26
3	Fulham	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Bristol City	15	6	6	3	+1	24
6	Norwich	15	7	2	6	-3	23
7	Leeds	15	7	1	7	+0	22
8	Aston Villa	14	6	3	5	+3	21
9	Cardiff	14	6	3	5	-1	21
10	Middlesbrough	13	6	2	5	+7	20
11	Sheffield United	14	6	2	6	+0	20
12	Reading	15	5	4	6	+0	19
13	Brentford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Burton Albion	14	4	4	6	-13	16
15	Sheffield Weds	15	3	6	6	-4	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	4	2	8	-7	14
17	Ipswich	14	4	2	8	-9	14
18	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-12	14
19	Barnsley	14	3	4	7	-7	13
20	QPR	15	2	5	8	-11	11
21	Millwall	14	1	6	7	-8	9
22	Hull	14	1	5	8	-13	8
23	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8
24	Birmingham	14	1	4	9	-15	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.