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Championship
Referee: Andy Madley
Preston
U S S S T
2–2
Full-time
Stoke
U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Stoke
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,5
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,3
This season — Championship · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
3,0
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

58% Possession 42%
15 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Preston 14. · Stoke 21.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 4 3 1 0 +6 10
2 West Brom 4 2 1 1 +6 7
3 Aston Villa 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Bolton 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Swansea 3 2 1 0 +2 7
6 Leeds 2 2 0 0 +4 6
7 Nott'm Forest 4 1 3 0 +1 6
8 Sheffield United 4 2 0 2 -2 6
9 Millwall 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 Blackburn 3 1 2 0 +1 5
11 Brentford 2 1 1 0 +4 4
12 Wigan 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 Derby 2 1 0 1 +0 3
14 Preston 2 1 0 1 +0 3
15 Rotherham 3 1 0 2 -5 3
16 Ipswich 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Birmingham 3 0 2 1 -1 2
18 Bristol City 3 0 2 1 -2 2
19 Sheffield Weds 2 0 1 1 -1 1
20 Norwich 3 0 1 2 -2 1
21 Stoke 2 0 1 1 -2 1
22 Hull 3 0 1 2 -3 1
23 Reading 3 0 0 3 -3 0
24 QPR 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Preston Stoke
27′
🟨 Joe Allen
1–0 P. Gallagher
40′
42′
E. Pieters 1–1
Half-time 2–1
2–1 G. Burke
C. Robinson
50′
59′
🔁 M. Diouf
↦ J. McClean
59′
🔁 P. Crouch
↦ S. Berahino
61′
P. Crouch 2–2
J. Allen
Ben Pearson 🟨
64′
L. Moult 🔁
↦ L. Nmecha
66′
T. Barkhuizen 🔁
↦ G. Burke
67′
Paul Gallagher 🟨
83′
R. Ledson 🔁
↦ P. Gallagher
83′
84′
🔁 O. Etebo
↦ B. Afobe
86′
🟨 Ryan Shawcross
90′
🟨 Peter Crouch
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Preston

4-2-3-1
1 D. Rudd G
5 T. Clarke D
16 A. Hughes D
2 D. Fisher D
6 B. Davies D
12 P. Gallagher M
4 B. Pearson M
8 A. Browne M
19 G. Burke F
7 C. Robinson M
45 L. Nmecha F
Bench (7)
9 L. Moult
29 T. Barkhuizen
18 R. Ledson
10 J. Harrop
21 B. Barker
22 C. Maxwell
23 P. Huntington

Coach: A. Neil

Stoke

4-4-2
1 J. Butland G
3 E. Pieters D
17 R. Shawcross D
5 A. Williams D
30 T. Edwards D
24 D. Fletcher M
4 J. Allen M
11 J. McClean M
7 T. Ince M
19 S. Berahino F
9 B. Afobe F
Bench (7)
18 M. Diouf
25 P. Crouch
8 O. Etebo
2 M. Bauer
27 Bojan
32 A. Federici
36 H. Souttar

Coach: G. Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Andy Madley · 129 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.