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Championship

Referee: Graham Scott

Millwall

U U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Swansea

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Millwall 16. · Swansea 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Derby	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sheffield United	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+6	11
6	Bolton	6	3	2	1	+0	11
7	West Brom	6	3	1	2	+6	10
8	Wigan	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Sheffield Weds	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Blackburn	5	2	3	0	+2	9
11	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
14	Nott'm Forest	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Rotherham	6	2	0	4	-6	6
16	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Preston	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Birmingham	6	0	4	2	-2	4
20	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	Hull	6	1	1	4	-5	4
22	QPR	6	1	1	4	-10	4
23	Reading	6	0	2	4	-4	2
24	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Wigan	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+6	6
7	Derby	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Rotherham	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
17	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
18	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	3
19	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
21	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0
24	Hull	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Derby	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Hull	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Wigan	3	1	0	2	+1	3
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Reading	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-3	1
21	QPR	3	0	1	2	-7	1
22	Ipswich	3	0	0	3	-4	0
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.