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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Leverkusen
T U S T U
3–1
Full-time
Hertha
S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Hertha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 47%
38%
56%
Points per game
1,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
69%
44%
Both score Ø 57%
75%
38%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,4
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%
16 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 4
14 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 10. · Hertha 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 17 13 3 1 +30 42
2 RB Leipzig 17 12 3 2 +19 39
3 Hoffenheim 17 7 10 0 +13 31
4 Dortmund 17 8 6 3 +17 30
5 Hertha 16 9 3 4 +8 30
6 Ein Frankfurt 17 8 5 4 +7 29
7 FC Koln 16 6 7 3 +6 25
8 Freiburg 17 7 2 8 -7 23
9 Schalke 04 17 6 3 8 +2 21
10 Leverkusen 16 6 3 7 -1 21
11 Mainz 16 6 2 8 -4 20
12 Wolfsburg 17 5 4 8 -8 19
13 Augsburg 17 4 6 7 -6 18
14 M'gladbach 17 4 5 8 -10 17
15 Werder Bremen 17 4 4 9 -15 16
16 Hamburg 17 3 4 10 -18 13
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 17 3 3 11 -14 12
18 Darmstadt 17 2 3 12 -19 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen Hertha
J. Tah 🔁
↦ A. Dragović
8′
1–0 Ö. Toprak
J. Hernández
12′
2–0 H. Çalhanoğlu
36′
44′
V. Stocker 2–1
Half-time 2–1
53′
🟨 Vedad Ibišević
55′
🟨 Valentin Stocker
66′
🔁 G. Haraguchi
↦ A. Esswein
A. Mehmedi 🔁
↦ J. Brandt
75′
82′
🔁 J. Schieber
↦ V. Darida
K. Havertz 🔁
↦ K. Bellarabi
84′
87′
🔁 S. Allagui
↦ P. Skjelbred
3–1 H. Çalhanoğlu
K. Kampl
88′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-4-2
1 B. Leno G
6 A. Dragović D
21 Ö. Toprak D
18 Wendell D
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
38 K. Bellarabi M
44 K. Kampl M
39 B. Henrichs D
7 J. Hernández F
10 H. Çalhanoğlu F
19 J. Brandt M
Bench (7)
4 J. Tah
14 A. Mehmedi
29 K. Havertz
16 T. Jedvaj
17 J. Pohjanpalo
28 R. Özcan
35 V. Yurchenko

Coach: R. Schmidt

Hertha

4-2-3-1
22 R. Jarstein G
28 F. Lustenberger M
2 P. Pekarík D
21 M. Plattenhardt D
25 J. Brooks D
5 N. Stark D
3 P. Skjelbred M
14 V. Stocker M
7 A. Esswein M
6 V. Darida M
19 V. Ibišević F
Bench (7)
24 G. Haraguchi
16 J. Schieber
11 S. Allagui
1 T. Kraft
15 S. Langkamp
34 M. Mittelstädt
40 J. Torunarigha

Coach: P. Dárdai

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Tobias Stieler · 91 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.