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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

PSV Eindhoven

S U S U S

4–3

Full-time

Heerenveen

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 55%

56%

53%

Points per game

2,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

28%

71%

Both score Ø 52%

39%

65%

Average goals

1,9

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

0,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

53% Possession 47%

23 Shots 13

13 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

15 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · Heerenveen 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	19	15	3	1	+38	48
2	Ajax	19	13	4	2	+25	43
3	PSV Eindhoven	18	10	7	1	+19	37
4	Heerenveen	17	9	4	4	+14	31
5	AZ Alkmaar	17	7	8	2	+9	29
6	Utrecht	17	7	6	4	+5	27
7	Vitesse	19	7	6	6	+4	27
8	Twente	19	7	6	6	+2	27
9	Nijmegen	19	6	7	6	-7	25
10	Groningen	18	5	6	7	-1	21
11	Heracles	19	5	6	8	-8	21
12	Willem II	19	4	7	8	-9	19
13	Sparta Rotterdam	19	4	6	9	-8	18
14	Excelsior	19	4	5	10	-11	17
15	Den Haag	19	5	2	12	-16	17
16	Zwolle	19	4	5	10	-22	17
17	Go Ahead Eagles	19	3	4	12	-17	13
18	Roda	19	1	10	8	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	10	8	2	0	+23	26
2	Ajax	9	6	2	1	+13	20
3	Twente	10	5	3	2	+6	18
4	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	3	1	+6	18
5	Heerenveen	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Nijmegen	10	4	4	2	+2	16
7	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Utrecht	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Heracles	9	4	2	3	+2	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Excelsior	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	1	5	-4	10
14	Den Haag	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Willem II	10	2	4	4	-5	10
16	Groningen	9	2	4	3	-6	10
17	Zwolle	10	2	3	5	-12	9
18	Roda	9	0	5	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Feyenoord	9	7	1	1	+15	22
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	4	0	+13	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+7	14
6	Utrecht	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Vitesse	10	3	4	3	+1	13
8	Groningen	9	3	2	4	+5	11
9	Twente	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Willem II	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-9	9
12	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-10	8
13	Roda	10	1	5	4	-10	8
14	Heracles	10	1	4	5	-10	7
15	Den Haag	10	2	1	7	-12	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Excelsior	9	1	2	6	-10	5
18	Go Ahead Eagles	10	0	3	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.