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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Bastia

T S T S T

0–0

Full-time

Nancy

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Nancy

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

20%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

50%

20%

Both score Ø 27%

33%

20%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 20%

20%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,6

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 19

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 11. · Nancy 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	1	1	+11	13
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Toulouse	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Nice	5	3	2	0	+3	11
5	Metz	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Bordeaux	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Guingamp	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	St Etienne	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Bastia	5	2	0	3	+0	6
12	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Angers	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Caen	5	2	0	3	-7	6
15	Marseille	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Lille	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Dijon	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Nancy	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Lorient	5	1	0	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Toulouse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Metz	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Bordeaux	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Caen	3	2	0	1	-3	6
10	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Montpellier	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Dijon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Angers	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Lille	3	1	0	2	-3	3
18	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-4	3
19	Nancy	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+5	6
2	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+0	5
4	Guingamp	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Lyon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Nice	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Metz	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Bastia	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Nancy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Angers	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	St Etienne	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Lille	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Caen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.